579 
FXUS63 KJKL 042033
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
433 PM EDT Sun Apr 4 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 433 PM EDT SUN APR 4 2021

The short term forecast discussion will follow shortly.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 433 PM EDT SUN APR 4 2021

Quiet weather is expected Tuesday into Wednesday with upper level 
ridging positioned over the area and high pressure dominating at the 
surface. The surface high should be located to our east while an 
upper level cut-off low approaches from the west, allowing for 
southerly return flow and cyclonic flow to advect warm, moist air 
into our area. A cold front associated with the low will approach 
our area Thursday into Friday, increasing cloud cover and the chance 
for precipitation toward the end of the work week and into the 
weekend.   

Models and the GEFS continue to show better agreement locating the 
cut-off low over the central Plains Wednesday afternoon, then moving 
the low more quickly northwest into the Upper Mississippi Valley by 
Thursday afternoon. The upper level trough begins to negatively tilt 
as the low progresses northwest. A northern stream trough then 
begins to dig into the northern CONUS, reinforcing the broader 
trough located over the eastern portion of the country. The models 
show agreement in the overall upper level pattern but do not agree 
on how deep this second trough will dig. The models have trended 
drier Wednesday night, only bringing in higher PoPs in the west at a 
slower pace than the blended guidance. There is general agreement in 
widespread precipitation across the area Thursday into Thursday 
night. The 12z GEFS showed little to no agreement in the 500 mb 
pattern for the weekend yesterday, but has since trended toward a 
less progressive upper level pattern, keeping the cut off low near 
the Upper Great Lakes/Ohio Valley area. Given the overall lower 
confidence on weather specifics for this weekend, have stayed closer 
to the blended guidance for PoPs, maintaining somewhat of a chance 
throughout the period.

Temperature guidance from MOS has trended higher for Tuesday and 
Wednesday, so bumped up the highs a few degrees into the mid 70s and 
upper 70s respectively. A ridge/valley split Tuesday night of about 
10 degrees is expected as cloud cover will be minimal. Highs for the 
rest of the period will be slightly cooler in the upper 60s and low 
70s with increased cloud cover and precipitation chances for the 
area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT SUN APR 4 2021

VFR conditions will persist through the entirety of the TAF
period. Overall conditions remain clear to mostly clear and are
expected to remain so, though a few high clouds approaching near
the end of the period are possible. Winds are currently averaging
between 5 and 10 kts out of the southwest, but are expected to 
ease up later in the evening. Winds will remain light before
increasing again Monday afternoon to around 5 kts for most areas,
and between 5 and 10 kts for our more northwestern areas. 

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...BATZ/GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...HAS