502 FXUS64 KJAN 041947 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 247 PM CDT Sun Apr 4 2021 .DISCUSSION... Tonight and Monday: The weak mid level trough over TX will begin to slowly move east through the period and bring a gradual increase in mid level moisture. Also, while initially light, surface winds will begin to increase over western portions Monday and further increase moisture in the lower levels. As the overall ascent will remain weak with the approaching system, the moisture increase will only result in multi-layered clouds, mainly over western sections. Enough sun will still be available Monday to push maximums into the mid and upper 70s./GG/ Monday night and Tuesday: In most areas, dry conditions will hang on for one more day before an upper ridge axis shifts past the area and a Florida panhandle surface high retreats. In the southerly flow regime, warmer conditions will be back in full force, with high temps beginning to push the 80s on Tuesday. Enough moisture return will be possible for a few instability/warm advection showers, or perhaps a storm, during the afternoon - mainly in South MS/Central LA. Wednesday and Thursday: Pronounced moisture return will occur Tuesday night into Wednesday ahead of an organizing storm system over the Plains states. The surface cold front is expected to advance through the Red River Valley into the ArkLaTex Wednesday afternoon into early evening, as convection advances into the ArkLaMiss Delta then continues eastward across the area overnight. Given increasing deep layer shear and weak to moderate instability developing across the area, strong to severe storms are also possible. Guidance currently indicates a 40-50 kt low level jet swinging across the area generally north of I-20 during the early evening, favoring a somewhat greater threat in this area which we continue to highlight in the HWO/graphics. In addition, while confidence is not high enough so far to specifically highlight a heavy rain threat, PW and water vapor transport are forecast Wednesday night to be in the 90th percentile of climo roughly along and north of the US 82 corridor which could lead to some locally heavy rain. As the upper level system pulls more northward, the cold front will stall near the northwestern corner of the forecast area on Thursday. With the bulk of the region remaining south of the front, additional convection is possible on Thursday, with severe storms remaining a possibility given moderate to strong instability and continuing strong deep layer shear. Friday through next Sunday: Beyond this time, forecast confidence decreases as there is greater uncertainty as to the position of the surface front, making all the difference between continued scattered convection and drier conditions. For now, isolated to scattered POPs were maintained across much of the region. /DL/ && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF discussion: VFR conditions will prevail through the period./GG/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 49 77 52 80 / 0 0 0 10 Meridian 46 76 49 80 / 0 0 0 4 Vicksburg 51 79 54 82 / 0 0 0 10 Hattiesburg 47 78 52 80 / 0 0 0 10 Natchez 51 77 54 80 / 0 0 0 17 Greenville 52 77 55 80 / 0 6 0 4 Greenwood 51 78 55 81 / 0 6 0 4 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$