883 
FXUS62 KKEY 041905
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
305 PM EDT Sun Apr 4 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Visible satellite loop highlights scattered stratocumulus 
bubbling over the Florida mainland and being advected towards the 
island chain. Land-based sensors are indicating temperatures in 
the upper 70s, right in line with the climatological normals for 
this time of year. It remains noticeably comfortable outside, with
dew points in the middle 50s. Available Doppler radar imagery 
from KAMX shows only a few isolated showers or sprinkles across 
the Straits of Florida being generated by speed convergence. With 
decent low- level wind speeds continuing overnight, it would not 
be out of the question for a brief shower to traverse portions of 
the island chain. Thus, slight chance of PoPs (10%) will be 
inserted overnight.

The 1030 hpa dome of high pressure centered near the Florida-
Georgia line is forecast to gradually migrate southeastward
through Tuesday. The high then becomes quasi-stationary in the
vicinity of the Bahamas for the remainder of the week. This will
result in a quite mundane pattern of very low PoPs with gentle to
moderate east to southeast flow. Temperatures will moderate
throughout the week, becoming warmer than average (mid 80s) by 
Thursday. 

There is quite a bit of uncertainty in the forecast for next
weekend. Recent deterministic runs of the global GFS numerical
model suggest an area of low pressure may form in the vicinity of
the Gulf of Mexico and then cross through the Florida peninsula. 
If this verifies, there may be somewhat of a sloppy forecast for 
at least portions of next weekend. Other deterministic and 
ensemble numerical guidance suggests a much more benign pattern 
continuing through next weekend. Plenty of time to monitor this--
stay tuned.

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for Hawk Channel and the
Straits of Florida. Small craft should exercise caution in the 
Florida Bay and both the nearshore and offshore gulf waters. 
Northeast to east breezes will continue to slowly slacken through
Monday. An extended period of gentle to moderate east to 
southeast breezes will commence Tuesday through the end of the 
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR and gusty northeast to east winds will prevail at the EYW and 
MTH terminals through the evening. SCT to BKN layers of 
stratocumulus based around 050 will be more common at MTH, although 
both TAFs have these CIGS included. 

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for GMZ042>044-
     052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...BT
Aviation/Nowcasts....CLR
Data Acquisition.....WLC

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