743 
FXUS65 KLKN 041847
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
1147 AM PDT Sun Apr 4 2021

.SYNOPSIS...One last day of dry and fair weather is expected for 
today. This will change on Monday as a system bring gusty winds, 
isolated showers, and increased fire concerns to NV. Fair and dry 
weather looks to return for mid work week with additional 
unsettled weather by the end of the work week. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER UPDATE...Model simulations continue to show critical
fire weather conditions occurring for Monday across the central 
NV zones of 425-427. Because of this, went ahead and upgraded
these zones. No other changes were made.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 205 AM / 

SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday. 

Dry and fair weather will continue through the rest of today but
change is on its way. For today that change will mainly mean 
increased cloud cover, slightly cooler temperatures, and higher 
winds. The real change will occur on Monday as a trough passes 
over northern NV. This will bring gusty winds across the region, 
isolated showers in northernmost NV, and increased fire concerns. 
The showers associated with this system will be sparse and not 
produce much meaningful precipitation as this system doesn't pack
much moisture. What it does have is winds, with speeds looking to
be in the 20s mph and gusts into the 30s and possibly 40s mph 
range. These winds are leading to increased fire concerns which 
is mainly centered in central NV where a Fire Weather Watch 
remains in effect. This is not helped by the already dry 
conditions present across NV from the ongoing major drought. The 
winds will also bring about blowing dusts that is likely to impact
a large swath of NV in some fashion but will be worst near the 
sources where visibility can be drastically reduced. Cooler 
temperatures will accompany the passage of the trough with highs 
dropping into the 60s. Tuesday will see the return of fair and dry
conditions but it will still remain cool with highs still in the 
60s. 

LONG TERM...Tuesday night through next Saturday

Weak ridging builds in Tuesday night courtesy of high pressure 
off the coast of the Baja Peninsula, but this doesn’t last long 
as a progression of low pressure systems marching across the 
country off to our North flatten our flow.

Right now there is a fair amount of uncertainty as to whether or 
not any of the precipitation off to our North will have an 
opportunity to reach into our CWA. While deterministic guidance 
keeps us dry, some members of the ensembles are putting light rain
showers in the valleys and light snow showers in the 
mountaintops. For now we will keep the light showers in our 
forecast grids, but this is going to change as models get a better
handle on the setup. 

Afternoon highs reach the 60s and 70s through the long term with 
cool overnight lows in the 20s and 30, and this is pretty normal 
for this time of year. 

AVIATION...VFR conditions can be expected at all TAF sites
through the next 24 hours. Some breezy winds will develop Sunday 
afternoon with gusts to around 20kts. 

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Monday for Central 
Nevada-Toiyabe-Northern Nye County-Mojave-White Pine and 
Northeast Nye Counties.

&&

$$

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