602 FXUS61 KILN 041743 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 143 PM EDT Sun Apr 4 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A weak front will drop into the area today and wash out. Otherwise, high pressure centered south of the region will result in a continuation of dry conditions with a warming trend. A slow moving cold front will bring an increasing chance of rain for mid to late week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A weak boundary bisecting the area is washing out with winds becoming very light. Airmass remains very dry with just some cirrus passing through. Forecast highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s still looks reasonable. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Mid level ridge over the nations mid section with ILN/s area in the warm sector. Expect to see dry conditions with some mid and high level clouds overnight. Milder temperatures tonight with lows in the lower and middle 40s. Weak shortwave to round the ridge thru the Great Lakes Monday. This will lead to an axis of lift that interacts with a stalled warm front as it pivots thru northern Ohio Monday aftn. ILN/s far northern counties are on the southern periphery for potential for afternoon showers. Have limited any pops to slight chance. Warm readings to continue with highs generally in the lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The extended period starts with the potential for active weather due to a mid-level disturbance providing lift along a stalled warm front. Showers and perhaps a few embedded thunderstorm are likely to be ongoing across north/northeast Ohio Monday evening. Some of this activity may slide south enough to affect central Ohio. Otherwise, much of the area remains dry and warm with temperatures dropping into the lower 50s. Tuesday through Wednesday features the potential for scattered showers primarily in the afternoon with peak heating as the warm front remains north of the forecast area. Do see a slight chance for a couple thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon as narrow CAPE profiles will be present. The struggle will be achieving strong enough lift to take advantage of the instability. Within the warm sector, temperatures are expected to climb well into the 70s with middle to upper 70s possible in locations that avoid showers. Wednesday night into Thursday, the well advertised closed low is expected to be moving into the middle Mississippi River Valley. As a result, a deeper fetch of moisture moves into the Ohio Valley, increasing the potential for more widespread showers and some embedded thunderstorms. While instability will be similar to Wednesday, steeper mid-level lapse rates and stronger forcing will aid updraft growth, increasing the chance for thunderstorms. Due to the better chance for precipitation, temperatures will be limited to the 60s. For Friday and Saturday, confidence is increasing that the closed low will pivot northward, west of the forecast area. This prevents any drastic airmass changes but doesn't quite eliminate precipitation chances. Dry air conveyor belt will certainly play a role in precipitation coverage, but confidence is low on it's location. Will continue to mention shower potential Friday and Saturday as the evolution of the upper level pattern is still uncertain. Temperatures for the period are above average with daytime highs 10 to 15 degrees above normal Tuesday and Wednesday. Even as daytime highs are limited by cloud cover/precipitation for late in the week, nightly lows will be 5 to 10 degrees above average due to the cloud cover and lack of strong cold air advection. && .AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. Some high and eventually mid clouds will pass across the region. Winds will be light, backing from west/southwest to south/southeast tonight. Winds will become south southwest and increase to near 10 kt late in the period. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities along with thunder are possible Wednesday night into Thursday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...McGinnis AVIATION...