351 FXUS63 KDLH 041724 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1224 PM CDT Sun Apr 4 2021 .DISCUSSION...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 417 AM CDT Sun Apr 4 2021 Summary: Very warm (or by Minnesota standards in spring...hot?) Easter Sunday and Monday. Rain and thunder chances move in Monday afternoon and last through the week with potential for a long-term rainy system Tuesday night through Friday. A very warm (or by Minnesota standards in the spring...hot?) Eastern Sunday is expected with highs in the mid to upper 60s for most and low 70s in east-central Minnesota and parts of northwest Wisconsin (colder near Lake Superior). A very dry air mass will remain in place, and this will result in min RH values dropping to around 15 to 25%. A weak low pressure system will keep winds light on the Minnesota side, but warm air advection over northwest Wisconsin and a tighter pressure gradient will result in higher wind speeds with some gusts to around 20 mph. Elevated to near- critical fire weather conditions are expected today. Similarly warm temperatures are expected on Monday with a bit more moisture advecting into the region to lessen fire weather concerns a bit. An upper level short wave and surface low pressure will bring warm air advection to the region and an increase in convective instability. The most recent model trends suggest that a capped environment may prevent rain and thunderstorms from initiating until late Monday afternoon or evening. Showers and storms may then fire along the warm front extending from Minnesota into Wisconsin and also along a cold front that will pass through from west to east Monday night. With MUCAPE values from 1 to 2K J/kg for a good portion of the region, especially south, there is a marginal threat for some severe weather, with large hail and gusty winds being the primary threats. A lull in the rainfall is possible on Tuesday before a larger vertically stacked low pressure system approaches from the south. Model differences remain regarding the exact track of the low, but a widespread and long-duration rain event is possible starting Tuesday night and possibly lasting as late as Friday before the system moves east and brings quieter weather for Saturday. With a predominantly warm air mass in place through the next week, cooler conditions can be expected near Lake Superior nearly every day compared to inland. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sun Apr 4 2021 VFR conditions throughout the forecast. Some high clouds will periodically roll through the Northland this evening and in the overnight hours before largely clearing out in the morning hours. A low pressure system is currently traversing across northern MN providing southerly winds across most of the terminals. This feature will continue east this afternoon and see winds shift to out of the east. && .MARINE... Issued at 951 AM CDT Sun Apr 4 2021 Northeasterly winds currently stream across the Lake today with speeds around 10 to 15 knots. Winds are forecasted to increase this afternoon beginning along the North Shore for gusts occasionally upwards of 25 knots. In response the prolonged northeast winds and long fetch waves will increase as we head into the evening and overnight hours. Additional Small Craft Advisories have been issued to cover this hazard. The highest waves are expected to be within the outer Apostle Islands with waves reaching 4-6ft tonight. Models are beginning to trend towards waves pushing in as far as the Duluth Harbor late this evening. The Small Craft Advisory may be expanded to include this zone with the next update. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 61 37 56 41 / 0 10 20 60 INL 63 35 69 33 / 0 0 30 50 BRD 70 42 73 40 / 0 10 30 50 HYR 70 42 73 45 / 0 10 20 60 ASX 66 37 61 43 / 0 10 20 60 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. LS...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 10 AM CDT Monday for LSZ146-147-150. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 AM CDT Monday for LSZ142-143. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM CDT Monday for LSZ140-141. && $$ DISCUSSION...JDS AVIATION...Britt MARINE...Britt