844 FXUS64 KLCH 041604 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1104 AM CDT Sun Apr 4 2021 .DISCUSSION... Mid level clouds beginning to thin out and scatter some this morning, resulting in a little nicer conditions than was experienced yesterday. Expect cloud cover will remain sctd through the day, and thus, should see a little more sun and warmer temperatures with highs reaching the lower 70s. Mid and high clouds will likely increase acrs SE TX this aftn as a small mid level vortmax over TX translates southeast, but minimal impacts are expected otherwise. Other than minor adjustments to hourly temps, dewpoints and winds to reflect obs and trends, no changes were made to the inherited fcst. 24 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 625 AM CDT Sun Apr 4 2021/ DISCUSSION... For 04/04/2021 12Z TAF Issuance. AVIATION... Some mid level clouds noted across the region around 8-12 kft. Expect some amount of mid level moisture and clouds to remain through the day. Some lower daytime CU likely develop as well, but CIGS through the TAF period will remain VFR. Calm to light E winds this morning shift more SE through the day, becoming light again by Sunday evening. A bit more low level moisture overnight Sunday into Monday, and with light winds and good radiational cooling, could see some patchy VIS reductions... with low confidence and guidance pretty underwhelming, opted not to include any mention in this TAF package. 50 PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 411 AM CDT Sun Apr 4 2021/ DISCUSSION... Generally quiet across the forecast area overnight, though there are still some lingering light showers across the coastal Atchafalaya. These should continue to push off toward the east in tandem with a weak shortwave trof traversing the northern Gulf. Otherwise, persistent mid level cloud cover has helped buoy temperatures overnight, especially across parts of central/south central LA. These clouds are forecast to become more scattered by this afternoon, though there is another weak shortwave trof traversing central TX that looks to keep cloudiness a little more persistent across SE TX, where a stray shower or two also cannot be ruled out. Still, enough sunshine is expected to help temperatures warm up into the lower to mid 70s. Benign weather is expected to continue tonight and into Monday, with weak ridging aloft slowly pushing off to the east atop an onshore flow around SFC high pressure settling into the southeast US. Gradually warming temperatures and rising dewpoints are expected, with a more notable increase arriving TUE as the depth/magnitude of southerly flow increases downstream of a more robust upper trof translating through the Intermountain West into the western High Plains. There is an areawide slight chance of mainly diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms TUE, with better rain chances expected WED into THU as the upper trof slowing works across the Plains and into the Mid/Upper MS River Valley, dragging a weak CDFNT toward the area. While the SFC front looks like it will stall to the NW, enough MSTR pooling ahead of the boundary and lift associated with the upper trof will result in a decent chance of showers and thunderstorms, though better lift will reside to our north. Divergence in the global models increases THU night and beyond, with the progressive GFS sending the CDFNT through the area by FRI morning, while the ECMWF and CMC keep the boundary meandering around though SAT. Leaned more toward the latter two solutions and kept some PoPs in the forecast FRi and SAT, with dry weather for SUN. 13 $& MARINE... High pressure will settle over the southeast states through the middle of next week. Light to occasionally moderate southerly winds will prevail. 13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 74 50 79 56 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 74 55 77 61 / 0 0 0 0 LFT 74 54 77 59 / 0 0 0 10 BPT 74 57 77 62 / 10 0 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC...24