683 
FXUS61 KPBZ 041455
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1055 AM EDT Sun Apr 4 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather and warmer weather is expected today under high pressure.
Periodic rain chances return through the upcoming week with a slow
moving front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
No major changes were needed to the daytime forecast.

Previous discussion...

A broad area of high pressure should maintain 
dry weather and mostly sunny skies today. High temperatures are 
expected to be 5 to 10 degrees above average under warm advection.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Dry weather should continue tonight as the broad area of high
pressure tracks east across the region. An upper low is progged to
persist of the NE CONUS through mid week, as a weak ridge tracks
across the Midwest. 

This should result in continued NW flow aloft across the Upper Ohio 
Valley region. Shortwaves embedded in the flow are expected to 
approach and cross the region beginning Monday afternoon, continuing 
through the rest of the short term forecast period, as a quasi-
stationary front sets up across the Upper Midwest to the Upper Ohio 
Valley region. This should result in periodic, shortwave dependent 
scattered showers. A few thunderstorms are also possible with 
sufficient model progged instability, mainly Tuesday.

Above average temperature is expected through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A ridge, approaching ahead of a closed Midwestern low, should result
in a lowering of shower chances later Wednesday and Wednesday night
as it builds across the region. The best chance for showers, and
possible thunderstorms, is expected later Thursday and Thursday night
as moist advection and shortwave support increase in SW flow ahead of
the approaching low. 

The low is expected to open and phase with another trough tracking 
across the Northern Plains. This trough is then expected to persist 
across the Great Lakes/Upper Ohio Valley region through Saturday,
resulting in additional periodic shower chances. Temperatures are
expected to remain above average through the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR and SKC will continue under high pressure, with diurnal mixing 
in nwly flow supporting occasional wind gusts to near 20kts this
aftn.

.Outlook...
General VFR should prevail under high pressure through Monday. 
Localized restrictions in rain showers / iso tstms will then be 
introduced late Mon aftn and eve with a warm front.


&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$