646 FXUS61 KPBZ 041146 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 746 AM EDT Sun Apr 4 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather and warmer weather is expected today under high pressure. Periodic rain chances return through the upcoming week with a slow moving front. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... No major changes were needed to the daytime forecast. Previous discussion... A broad area of high pressure should maintain dry weather and mostly sunny skies today. High temperatures are expected to be 5 to 10 degrees above average under warm advection. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Dry weather should continue tonight as the broad area of high pressure tracks east across the region. An upper low is progged to persist of the NE CONUS through mid week, as a weak ridge tracks across the Midwest. This should result in continued NW flow aloft across the Upper Ohio Valley region. Shortwaves embedded in the flow are expected to approach and cross the region beginning Monday afternoon, continuing through the rest of the short term forecast period, as a quasi- stationary front sets up across the Upper Midwest to the Upper Ohio Valley region. This should result in periodic, shortwave dependent scattered showers. A few thunderstorms are also possible with sufficient model progged instability, mainly Tuesday. Above average temperature is expected through the period. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A ridge, approaching ahead of a closed Midwestern low, should result in a lowering of shower chances later Wednesday and Wednesday night as it builds across the region. The best chance for showers, and possible thunderstorms, is expected later Thursday and Thursday night as moist advection and shortwave support increase in SW flow ahead of the approaching low. The low is expected to open and phase with another trough tracking across the Northern Plains. This trough is then expected to persist across the Great Lakes/Upper Ohio Valley region through Saturday, resulting in additional periodic shower chances. Temperatures are expected to remain above average through the long term period. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR will prevail through the TAF period under northwest flow aloft. Included LLWS for most sites through the first few hours this morning until the height gradient relaxes. Otherwise, expect a mostly clear sky is expected under continued high pressure Sunday, with wind veering a bit toward northwest with time. .Outlook... High pressure will maintain dry VFR conditions through the weekend. Next chance of precipitation is Monday night. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$