689 
FXUS63 KABR 041123 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
623 AM CDT Sun Apr 4 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 411 AM CDT Sun Apr 4 2021

Weak low pressure will dominate the region today. As one inverted 
trough slides east, another broad sfc low will enter the west. The 
gradient between the two systems will generate some breezy south to 
southeast winds across central SD today. Combined with the very dry 
air that has been in place for the last week, more Red Flag 
conditions are in store today. Issued a warning for north central SD 
where the best mixing will occur on the edge of the thermal and mid 
level moisture gradients. However, there could be a period where 
warning criteria is met along I-90. Confidence is lower on wind 
strength there. 

The good mixing will lead to near record highs again today, as well 
with H85 temps in the upper teens Celsius west of the James valley. 
Highs will top out in the mid 70s to mid 80s. 

Low pressure will continue to push east on Monday and become more 
well-defined. Strong caa will set up on the north to northwest side 
of the low with a 12C drop in H85 temps noticeable in the tight 
thermal packing. Timing of the caa is the big question. Winds will 
become strong and gusty out of the north. While temps will fall, if 
the winds move in during the afternoon, central SD could see 
widespread critical fire conditions. At the same time, the southerly 
winds ahead of the low will draw up some minimal moisture. Not 
completely sold on precip across the northeast with the thermal 
gradient given the dry mid levels, but do have some slight chances 
in there for Monday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 411 AM CDT Sun Apr 4 2021

00Z Tuesday is in the middle of our transition period from well 
above average temperatures and very dry weather, to only around 10 
degrees above average and increasing moisture. Winds Monday night 
will remain out of the northeast around 10-15kts, and even a little 
higher across the higher terrain with a 900mb llj of 30-35kts. The 
pressure gradient doesn't really relax Tuesday either, as the 
surface high tracks east along the ND/Canada border and another in a 
series of lows nears from the Central Plains. This one will be the 
most significant system we've had precipitation wise for a long 
time, becoming nearly stacked from the sfc-500mb Wednesday. Ensemble 
solutions have increased the likelihood of precipitation over much 
of the area, but still have a drier leaning across north central SD, 
which isn't a good thing for our very parched soils and vegetation. 
At this point the qpf ranges from near 0.10in over portions of 
Corson County to over 0.75in generally east of Brown/Spink Counties. 
While exact details will will need to be worked out, confidence is 
growing in the current forecast. We'll even get a glancing shot at 
some thunderstorms Monday evening (over our southeastern counties), 
Tuesday afternoon-evening (far southern counties), and Wednesday 
afternoon (far southeastern counties). Dry weather will likely 
return for Saturday, with high pressure at the surface and a brief 
ridge at 500mb. Unsettled weather with another slight chance of 
light rain may move in for Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Sun Apr 4 2021

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected through the period. 

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 7 PM 
     CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for SDZ003>005-009-010-015.

MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...Wise