729 
FXUS65 KFGZ 041052
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
352 AM MST Sun Apr 4 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Very warm and very dry weather will continue over the
next couple days. Expect breezy to gusty winds each afternoon 
through the forecast period. The strongest winds will occur Monday
and Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The Springtime weather pattern continues for the
foreseeable future with a generally dry zonal flow pattern over 
the region. Satellite imagery show mostly clear skies with periods
of scattered high clouds advecting in off the Pacific. Today will
be the warmest day yet this year with some forecast near record 
and record high temperatures under the ridge in place over the 
Southwest. The low dropping down into the Pacific Northwest today 
will pass well to the northeast of the area Tuesday. This low will
break down the ridge as it moves through, cooling temperatures 
beginning Monday. 

With the approach of this low, the pressure gradient over norther
Arizona tightens to give us gusty southwest winds Monday. The 
stronger winds mostly along and east of higher terrain will gust 
30 to 45 mph through the afternoon. The major concern with these
stronger winds and the very low relative humidity is the near
critical Fire Weather conditions possible in areas where the fuels
are already dry or are drying quickly. We issued a Fire Weather 
Watch for areas east of Flagstaff for Monday. We will watch these
conditions closely and provide updates as needed.

These stronger winds will continue overnight in areas of down 
slope east of higher terrain with gusts as high as 45 mph still 
possible. This includes locations such as Doney Park, Two Guns, 
and Springerville. Winds will shift west to northwest as the 
trough passes to the northeast Tuesday. These gusty winds won't be
quite as strong as on Monday with the stronger winds shifted more
to the east. A second and third trough will pass to the northeast
about Friday and again about Sunday preventing the ridge from 
building back in, thus moderating the temperatures at 5-10 
degrees above the seasonal normals Tuesday through the rest of the
week. 

&&

.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Expect VFR conditions and mostly 
clear skies for the 24 hour TAF forecast period. Sfc winds becmg 
SW10-20kts from 18Z-01Z, otherwise generally light. Aviation 
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Unseasonably warm and dry weather will continue 
today, with afternoon southwest winds at 10 to 20 mph. Much windier 
and drier weather arrives Monday, with continued well above normal 
temperatures. For that reason, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued 
for far southeastern Coconino county and much of Navajo and Apache 
counties for Monday afternoon.

Tuesday through Thursday...Gusty westerly winds are expected 
Tuesday, with slightly cooler temperatures. Above normal daytime 
temperatures and continued dry conditions persist Wednesday and 
Thursday, with lighter winds. 

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Fire Weather Watch from Monday 
afternoon through Monday evening FOR AZZ110-111-113-114-116-140.


&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff