548 FXUS61 KGYX 041031 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 631 AM EDT Sun Apr 4 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure over the Atlantic will drift westward today and bring breezy conditions and a chance of showers to Maine by Monday. After spinning offshore through Tuesday this low will pull away on Wednesday with high pressure expected through the rest of the week. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... 630AM UPDATE... Updated the forecast to tie into the latest early morning observations. No significant changes in forecast thinking. ORIGINAL DISCUSSION... It'll be another dry and mostly sunny day today with temperatures 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. Low pressure to our east will slowly push back to the west. This will increase the pressure gradient and lead to some stronger northwest winds. Gusts to 25 or 30 mph are expected especially across western Maine this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/... As low pressure spins and expands to our east, a band of showers is likely to rotate in from the east tonight into Monday. This low will be bringing its own recycled cold air with it and it's possible that precipitation may actually fall as snow for a time especially in northern areas. We're not looking at a lot in the way of precipitation as the band will be falling apart as it arrives. But some wet weather is likely along with continued breezy conditions into Monday with temperatures cooler than today. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Hemispheric pattern remains blocked as a high over low has set up in the north Atlantic around 40W, keeping the NAO solidly negative. With the downstream block, the upper level low just east of New England will linger through at least the middle of the week. As is typical for these patterns we see good agreement and high confidence amongst the guidance to hold onto the block, with decreasing confidence in the timing of the eventual break down. While it can't last forever, the trend over the past few nights and past experience suggests that holding onto the low a bit longer is a solid bet and have kept this in mind for the forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday. Despite a closed low, there really isn't much in the way of sensible weather impacts to be seen as the bulk of the low remains east of us. Some scattered showers - rain at lower elevations, with snow mixing on the summits- will be seen for the first part of Tuesday and the gradually taper off by Wednesday as the low begins to fill. For Thursday and Friday a ridge builds in to the region and with the continued off shore flow will allow temperatures to climb all the way to the coast. Have gone a bit above guidance in this downslope and offshore pattern. Eventually by the week's end expect the block to break down, allowing the ridge to progress through the region and finally allowing for precipitation as low pressure that's been stuck in the Great lakes could move east. Overall will be a very dry period with total precipitation through the end of the week less than a tenth of an inch for most of the area, even in the highest ensemble members. With snowmelt now coming to an end for all but the highest terrain expect to see river levels continue to drop, with southern NH already showing streamflow well below normal for this date. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short Term...VFR today with stronger northwest winds. A band of showers rotates in from the east tonight into Monday and will bring some MVFR or possibly IFR conditions as it does so. This band will be falling apart as it arrives and will likely not make it much west of Portland. Most of New Hampshire should stay VFR through Monday. Long Term... VFR with northerly flow for much of the week as low pressure to our east sits and spins. A few showers may briefly lower conditions to MVFR in the mountains on Tuesday but otherwise partly to mostly cloudy VFr will prevail. && .MARINE... Short Term...Low pressure over the Atlantic nudges westward toward the area today. This will increase the northwest winds into Gale range across the central and eastern Gulf of Maine. Wind speeds drop off a bit on Monday but will likely still necessitate a Small Craft Advisory. Long Term...A closed low will hold just east of the waters providing northerly Gales to start the week. That low will slowly move east and fill decreasing conditions to SCA by late Tuesday before finally high pressure moves in with calming winds and seas for midweek. && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry conditions continue today, although not quite as dry as yesterday. Temperatures will be warmer but dewpoints will be as well. Northwest winds will increase through the day especially across western Maine as low pressure over the Atlantic nudges closer to the area. Wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph are expected which will combine with the dry conditions to create elevated fire spread conditions. Eventually we expect some showers to begin rotating in from the east especially for Maine with humidity levels increasing area wide by Monday. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM EDT Monday for ANZ153-154. Gale Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ150>152. && $$ NEAR TERM...Kimble SHORT TERM...Kimble LONG TERM...Curtis