752 FXUS65 KPUB 041015 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 415 AM MDT Sun Apr 4 2021 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 349 AM MDT Sun Apr 4 2021 ... HOT ... Currently... A few high clouds were noted over the fcst area at 3AM, otherwise skies were clear. Temps were in the 40s to 50s over the plains with the warmest temps along the lower Ark Rvr valley. In the higher valleys temps were in the 40s with 30s in the mtns. Today... Record high temps are likely across the region. expect 80s across nearly all of the plains with 70s in the larger mtn valleys. Even the higher elevations of the mtns will be in the 40s. The following are record (R) highs for the date and forecasted (F) highs: KALS - R71/F72 KCOS - R77/F77 KPUB - R81/F85 The only issue which may allow for somewhat cooler temps is we should see more mid and high clouds move over the region today. A well defined lee trough is going to develop over the plains and we may see an isold thundershower extending from the Kim to S Prowers county region late this afternoon. Some isold thunder may also occur across the southern Sangres region. Any convection (thunder or no thunder) will likely produce virga and this could cause some likely strong gusty winds. Regarding Fire Weather...it will be windy east of the lee trough however RH values will likely only get down to a minimum of 15%. West of the lee trough RH values will be lower (single digit minimums), but the winds will be lighter. Overall, we may see near critical fire weather conditions over the far southeast plains, but highlights are not warranted at this time. Tonight... Dry and continued unseasonably warm. Mins will be in the 40s to around 50F plains...20s and 30s larger interior valleys. 20s in the mtns. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 349 AM MDT Sun Apr 4 2021 Overall, the operational models are in agreement with the evolution of the upper pattern, however, there are differences with an upper storm system expected on Tuesday. The latest guidance and ensembles have trended south, and sped up a bit. This will likely play a role in fire weather conditions across the area for Tuesday. Monday and Tuesday...the main concern during this period will be the potential for dangerous fire weather conditions across southern Colorado as an upper storm system drops southeast out of the Pacific Northwest. Flow aloft on Monday will transition from west to southwesterly, and increase throughout the afternoon. Dry air will spread across the San Luis Valley, and across the Eastern Plains. Gusty winds are expected over the San Luis Valley, east into the southern I-25 corridor, where humidity values are expected to be under 15 percent. Issued a Fire Weather Watch from late Monday morning, into Monday evening for the San Luis Valley, Huerfano and western Las Animas Counties. Near critical fire weather conditions will also be possible over portions of Pueblo County, but coverage did not seem widespread enough to warrant a watch. This will need to be monitored. Further east, humidity values will be low, however, winds will be weaker, limiting the fire weather threat. Temperatures will once again be hot across the Plains with mid 80s to near 90. On Tuesday, the Pacific Northwest upper low is forecast to drop southeast across Colorado and into Kansas. Most model guidance has trended south, and sped up the storm system a bit. This will likely have an impact on several aspects of the forecast. One will be the potential for high fire danger. Based on the latest guidance, locations south of Highway 50 will see the greatest potential for high fire danger due to strong westerly winds and very low humidity values. In fact, the high fire danger could start early in the day. Temperatures will be another forecast challenge. A strong cold front is forecast to drop south into the Plains. The NAM and ECMWF have the front south across much of the Plains by mid afternoon, while the GFS is pushing into the Palmer Divide. Higher humidity values are expected behind the front, and depending on timing, may limit the high fire danger extent, especially north of Highway 50. Winds will be gusty behind the front, but humidity values are forecast to rise as well. Most models develop showers and possibly thunderstorms along the front, from the Palmer Divide, southeast across the Plains Tuesday afternoon and evening. Much uncertainty lies in this potential at this time. Afternoon highs will be front dependent as well. It does look like it will be about 10 to 15 degrees cooler with 70s across the Plains. The main thing for Monday and Tuesday will be the High Fire Danger. Continue to monitor the latest forecast trends for the latest info on the critical conditions. Wednesday through Saturday...the upper level low is forecast to shift east of the area Wednesday into Thursday with broad westerly flow developing across Colorado. Several disturbances embedded in the flow are possible with Mountain showers and possible thunderstorms during this period. Exact timing remains in question. Temperatures will remain mild with 70s to near 80 degrees expected throughout this period. Mozley && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) Issued at 349 AM MDT Sun Apr 4 2021 VFR conditions are near certain during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. With a well defined lee trough expected to develop over the plains, winds this afternoon are expected to take on a more westerly component, with generally light speeds. The only concern I have is there is likely going to be some virga this afternoon and I cannot rule out some locally gusty winds at any of the taf sites. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for COZ224-229-230. && $$ SHORT TERM...HODANISH LONG TERM...MOZLEY AVIATION...HODANISH