003 
FXUS65 KTWC 040935
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
235 AM MST Sun Apr 4 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Happy Easter. It'll be a hot one under strong high
pressure aloft. Hot early April temperatures continue on Monday.
Then a weather system passing by to the north brings slightly 
cooler temperatures along with gusty winds Tuesday into Wednesday 
along with potential fire weather impacts on Tuesday. Above 
normal temperatures to continue into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Hot Easter day on tap with record or near record
highs under strong high pressure aloft. A far cry from 22 years
ago when Easter fell on April 4th. Back then a winter storm with
low elevation snow hit the area. Not a slam dunk that Tucson will
record the first 95 of 2021 this afternoon but if it does it will
be the 8th earliest on record. Remaining early April hot on Monday
with another round of record to near record highs. 

Cooler temperatures but still above normal Tuesday and Wednesday
as a weather system passes by to our north. Breezy conditions both
days with potential fire weather impacts on Tuesday. Per coord
with our NM neighbors, held off on any fire weather headlines for
now.

Well above normal high temperatures and typical afternoon breezes 
Thursday into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 05/12Z.
SKC-SCT250 ft AGL. Surface wind diurnally driven with speeds mostly
less than 12 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...High pressure aloft will result in more well above 
normal temperatures and very dry conditions today and Monday. The 
tail end of a weather system passing north of the area will generate 
strong and gusty winds Tuesday afternoon and evening. These elevated 
wind speeds in combination with minimum relative humidity values of 
less than 15 percent will result in critical fire weather conditions,
especially in Cochise, eastern Graham, and Greenlee counties. The
system will also help lower daytime temperatures a few degrees, but
dry conditions with elevated afternoon winds can be anticipated the
second half of this coming week. 

&&

.CLIMATE...Record or near record highs today, Easter, and on Monday.

DATE                         Apr 04           Apr 05   
                          FCST RCD/YR      FCST RCD/YR 
TUCSON INTL AIRPORT        95  94/1943      94  96/1989
AJO                        97  99/1943      96  98/1961
ORGAN PIPE CACTUS          99  98/1961      97  99/1989
PICACHO PEAK               96  94/2002      95  98/1989
SAFFORD AG STATION         93  92/1959      95  91/1961
SIERRA VISTA FD            88  86/1989      89  88/1972
TOMBSTONE                  88  90/1961      90  90/1972
WILLCOX                    87  89/1961      89  91/1972

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. 

&&

$$

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