606 FXUS62 KCHS 040750 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 350 AM EDT Sun Apr 4 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Dry, high pressure will prevail through mid week. A cold front will then approach the area near the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Through sunrise: A surface ridge of high pressure continues be centered over the Savannah River region. Light winds and clear skies have allowed for good radiational cooling conditions. However, surface dewpoint temperatures seem to be running a few degrees warmer than previously expected. This will likely reduce the potential for patchy to scattered frost inland this morning. However, given the uncertainty and the fact that we are now within the time of the potential event, have left Frost Advisory in place for interior counties. Later today/this afternoon: The surface ridge will gradually drift east-southeast into the nearshore Atlantic waters as a mid and upper level ridge builds to the west. This will produce southwest low level winds, which will result in warmer temperatures for today/Easter Sunday. Expect highs to reach the lower 70s most areas, except cooler right near the coast as winds will become onshore as a seabreeze develops. With afternoon dewpoint temperatures in the 30s, it will feel very pleasant under mostly sunny/sunny skies. Tonight: The surface ridge weakens and shifts slightly farther southeast as a mid/upper level ridge continue to the west. Although winds will be light and skies mostly clear, the atmosphere will be warmer than the previous night, but still cook/below normal temperatures, in mid 40s well inland, and the upper 40s to lower 50s near the coast. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Broad surface high pressure will dominate the Southeast US through the period. Steady, northwest flow aloft will prevail keeping conditions benign. Sunny skies and mild temperatures are forecast through the period. A noticeable warming trend is expected as mid/upper lvl ridging broadens just west of the area and shifts eastward. Therefore temperatures are forecast to increase each day, with highs in the mid to upper 70s Monday, upper 70s to low 80s Tuesday and low to mid 80s Wednesday. Coastal locations will be slightly cooler during the day than places slightly more inland due to the influence of cooler ocean waters and sea breeze effects. Low temps Monday should range from the upper 40s/low 50s with coastal locations in the mid 50s. Min temps thereafter will increase by a few degrees or so each night. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure over the Southeast will begin to push offshore as a deep upper low over the Central Plains shifts eastward before lifting north. Its associated surface low will follow the same path, lifting north once it reaches the Ohio Valley. A cold front will approach from the WNW late Thursday, bringing showers and thunderstorms to the area Friday. Diurnal instability will reach its max during the afternoon/evening hours when thunderstorms will be most likely. Behind the front, shortwave activity will promote the development of isolated to scattered showers through the weekend. It's likely showers could stay offshore where there is greater moisture, however this will depend on the strength of the front and how much dry air the incoming air mass brings to the region. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail at KCHS and KSAV through 00z Monday. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR. && .MARINE... Monday through Friday: No marine concerns through at least mid-week as high pressure remains the dominant feature. West-southwest winds early in the week are expected to be relatively calm around 10 kt or so. Each day winds will shift southerly during the afternoon hours with respect to sea breeze effects and return southwesterly after evening. Seas will range 1-3 ft across all waters. A bit of a surge is expected Thursday into Friday as a cold front approaches the area. Winds will increase slightly; 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, and seas will build to 3-5 ft. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for GAZ087-088-099- 100-114-115. SC...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for SCZ040-042>045. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RFM SHORT TERM...BRM LONG TERM...BRM AVIATION...RFM MARINE...RFM/BRM