882 FXUS64 KOUN 040712 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 212 AM CDT Sun Apr 4 2021 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 211 AM CDT Sun Apr 4 2021 Weak upper wave will traverse south Texas today as low level southerly flow continues. These winds will bring increasing moisture and stratus northward across much of the area later this morning. This cloud cover will likely linger across areas along and south of I-44 through much of the day. Will keep slightly cooler temperatures in these areas for today, but everyone is still expected to warm into the 70s with near 80 degrees along the Kansas border. South winds continue tonight and with higher dewpoints, temperatures will remain mild overnight with lows only dropping into the middle 50s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 211 AM CDT Sun Apr 4 2021 More substantial upper trough moves into Pacific northwest on Monday with increasing mid-level flow into the central Conus. As this occurs, pressure falls throughout the High Plains will result in tighter pressure gradient and increasing south winds. Veered low level flow will also bring in warmer air from the west resulting in even warmer temperatures early this week. By Tuesday, much of the area will climb into the 80s with 90 degrees not out of the question across western north Texas. Both days will see elevated fire weather across parts of western Oklahoma and western north Texas. A lead wave will rotate around the base of the approaching larger trough and will impinge on a developing dryline that is progged to be near the western border of Oklahoma Tuesday afternoon. However airmass to the east of the dryline is expected to remain capped precluding the development of any thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon. Main upper wave will move through the central and southern Plains Tuesday night into early Wednesday along with associated surface cold front. This front will push quickly southeast across Oklahoma and western north Texas Wednesday morning, a bit faster than previous model runs. Moisture will be quickly shunted eastward, keeping precip chances across a majority of the area to a minimum. Will maintain some low pops, mainly along and east of I-35 Tuesday night and Wednesday. One other interesting trend has been that the models have trended farther south with upper wave and this brings the potential for the possibility of some wrap-around precip that may impact northern Oklahoma late Wednesday into Wednesday night, for now will leave this period dry, but will need to monitor trends. Gusty west to northwest winds will also accompany the front, which could result in a period of elevated fire weather conditions. However, cooler low level thermal field may actually result in falling temperatures across parts of the area by Wednesday afternoon. Slightly cooler temperatures will follow the front for the end of the week into the following weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1040 PM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021 Still looking for MVFR cigs to spread northward out of central Texas into KSPS and southern/central Oklahoma terminals late tonight and tomorrow morning. Also still expect cigs to rise into VFR toward and after 18Z. Gusty south-southwest winds will be the rule after 12Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 75 55 78 60 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 77 55 81 59 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 76 55 81 60 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 81 54 81 58 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 78 55 79 60 / 0 0 0 10 Durant OK 72 55 79 60 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...11