850 FXUS63 KABR 040525 AAC AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1225 AM CDT Sun Apr 4 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 1010 PM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021 Dropped temps a bit over the James valley, otherwise forecast is on track. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night) Issued at 335 PM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021 Red flag conditions being met across much of the warning area from the James Valley and west this afternoon. Temperatures were in the 70s with rhs around 15 percent or less and south winds gusting to 20 to 30 mph. Therefore, will continue with the warning into the evening hours as temperatures cool, rhs increase, and the winds subside. Otherwise, for tonight and Sunday, a surface low pressure area in northwest nd will move east into northern MN by Sunday morning. Behind this will be a front that will push south across our cwa into Sunday morning. With a deep dry atmosphere, don't expect any weather with it except for a wind shift. Surface high pressure will push east behind this front into Sunday. Thus, expect winds to become northeast and east through tonight into Sunday morning. On Sunday, the winds will slowly turn to the southeast through the day and increase. Despite temperatures rising into the mid 70s to the mid 80s and rhs falling to around 15 to 20 percent, the conditions are not expected to reach red flag for most of the cwa due to the wind speeds expected to hold below 25 mph for the day. A xsct across the cwa then shows high level moisture making it into the cwa Sunday night with a surface low pressure area moving in from the west along with winds generally under 10 mph. Mild overnight lows are expected in the 40s. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 335 PM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021 Zonal flow looks to characterize much of the extended period, bringing more seasonable (but still above average) temperatures and precipitation chances from time to time. On Monday, temperatures will remain very mild with abnormally mild 850mb air (10 to 14+ C) overhead/mixing down during the afternoon. Highs are most likely to top out in the 70s, though a cold front will be working through the area, and an earlier passage would lead to slightly cooler than currently advertised highs generally along/west of the James Valley. Min RH values in the 20 to 40% range combined with gusty north winds during the afternoon (particularly behind the cold front) should lead to elevated fire danger. By the early evening, enough instability may have developed across west central Minnesota for an isolated thunderstorm or two to form as the front passes through. A better chance for rainfall takes shape across the area Tuesday morning through Wednesday night as an area of low pressure develops near the CO/NE/KS border and then tracks east-northeast through Iowa. Cooler temperatures and breezy northeasterly winds are anticipated through this period, though some uncertainty remains on just how much precipitation will fall. Will remain cautiously optimistic for measurable precipitation across the whole CWA at this time. Low temperatures Tuesday morning and overnight into Wednesday morning will drop into the mid to upper 30s, so there is potential for some snow to mix in at times as well. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sun Apr 4 2021 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR skies/vsbys are expected regionwide through Sunday. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...TDK SHORT TERM...Mohr LONG TERM...Lueck AVIATION...Wise