784 
FXUS63 KARX 040350
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1050 PM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday Night) 
Issued at 148 PM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021

A weak trough of low pressure was passing through the area this 
afternoon. Little impact on the area noted with this feature other 
than a wind shift to the northwest in the 5 to 15 mph range. 
Temperatures as of 1 pm were in the 60/few lower 70s under sunny 
skies.

Southerly flow returns tonight into Sunday in advance of a weak mid-
level trough/surface low pushing in from the Northern Plains. Models 
show a narrow corridor of better 850mb moisture transport holding 
northwest of the area overnight which looks to fire some weak 
convection that way, moving it through northern WI by midnight or so 
per the NAM 4km WRF. Model soundings show lower levels very dry 
through, so perhaps a scattered-broken field of mid-level Accas as 
result north of I-94. Looking fairly breezy out of the south at 10-
15 mph, gusting around 20 mph -windiest across the wind prone areas 
of northeast IA/southeast MN. Otherwise, a warm day on tap with 
highs in the 60s to mid-70s. 

For Sunday night into Monday, we will be watching a warm front push 
through the area along with increasing low-level moisture transport. 
Forcing with this is expected to fire isolated-scattered convection 
(mainly elevated) across the area. Latest NAM stays dry while GFS is 
most robust/widespread with this convection. Will keep pops in the 
lower/chance category for now based on this. If convection does 
indeed develop, could see a few stronger updrafts capable of some 
hail given daytime heating and steepening mid-level lapse rates. 
Will keep an eye on this. Otherwise, another warm day Monday with 
highs in the mid-60s to mid-70s with a tinge of humidity as dew 
points surge into the 50s.

Shower and thunderstorm chances continue Monday night as an 
elongated area of low pressure pushes across the area with a 
continued feed of low/mid level moisture. 

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 148 PM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021

Models show a cold front sagging south through the area Tuesday and 
then hangs up as a warm front by evening/Tuesday night tied to low 
pressure moving into the Central Plains. Increasing surge of 850mb 
moisture transport into this front looks to bring increasing 
shower/thunder chances into the area Tuesday night. Still warm for 
Tuesday with highs in the 60s/lower 70s.

Showers and embedded storms expected for Wednesday into Thursday as 
both the GFS/ECMWF show deepening/stacked low over the Plains moving 
toward the region. A little cooler temperatures (but remaining above 
normal) expected Tuesday/Wednesday with more cloud cover and 
precipitation.

Stacked/closed low will be lingering in the vicinity through at 
least Thursday night for scattered shower activity. 

Looks dry for Friday/Saturday with upper level ridge building in. 
This should keep temperatures above normal as highs top off in the 
mid-50s/near 60.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1050 PM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Light
southeasterly winds the rest of tonight will become more southerly
after daybreak and then southwesterly in the afternoon. The 
pressure gradient will strengthen overhead by afternoon with deep
mixing developing, bringing some stronger winds aloft down to the
surface in the form of 20 to 25 knot gusts, strongest at RST. 
Gusts will diminish towards evening as winds back to the south- 
southeast. 

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...Kurz