150 FXUS66 KMFR 040332 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 832 PM PDT Sat Apr 3 2021 .DISCUSSION...Current satellite is showing a deck of high clouds moving across southern Oregon and northern California. Otherwise, some lower stratus clouds have developed south of from the Coquille Valley stretching southwest south of Cape Blanco and extending southward through Brookings. Have updated the sky forecast to account for this development, but otherwise, things look on track. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on the forecast. -Schaaf && .AVIATION...For the 04/00Z TAF Cycle...Along the coast and just offshore, areas of MVFR with local IFR ceilings are expected to continue for most of the TAF period from Cape Blanco south. Any improvements this afternoon will be short lived with MVFR/IFR ceilings returning this evening. North of Cape Blanco, expect areas of MVFR ceilings mixed with periods of VFR conditions until this evening when MVFR/IFR conditions will become more widespread and consistent. Patchy MVFR ceilings could push into the lower Umpqua Valley and perhaps around Roseburg around sunrise Sunday. The lower conditions are expected to persist into Sunday morning, then improve during the afternoon hours. Elsewhere, VFR will continue through the TAF period. -Spilde/BR-y && .MARINE...Updated 830 PM PDT Saturday 3 Apr 2021....Winds and seas will be light through tonight. A weak front will move through Sunday into Sunday night. There will be a period of advisory level north winds and choppy seas Sunday afternoon into Monday. While conditions should improve north of Cape Blanco later Monday, conditions will likely remain hazardous to small craft through at least Monday evening, and possibly into Tuesday south of Cape Blanco. Winds and seas should subside on Wednesday. Another front will move onshore Thursday. -Spilde && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 226 PM PDT Sat Apr 3 2021/ DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows scattered high clouds moving in from the southwest. The weather will remain fairly quiet through at least Sunday morning. Sunday afternoon, winds will increase east of the Cascades ahead of an approaching upper trough. Also expect gusty breezes for some of the west side valley locations like the Rogue and Shasta Valley mid to late Sunday afternoon and evening. This upper trough is expected to move into the area Monday morning, then move east of the area Monday night. Compared to yesterday, the operational GFS and NAM are more bullish with the amount and coverage area of QPF. However, the operational ECMWF remains flat out dry, is quicker to move the upper trough through, and does not quite dig as much over our area. It basically swings through northeast of the forecast area which is a trajectory that typically results in little or no precipitation. A more detail look at the individual GFS ensemble members reveal about half of the members showing mo measurable precipitation and the majority of the individual ECMWF members showing no precipitation. In fact breaking the individual ECMWF ensembles down further, Sunday evening only 5 members show precipitation. Sunday night 6 members, Monday morning 11 members and Monday afternoon 7 members. This is a out of a total of 50 members, so the overall numbers are pretty low. While the chance for precipitation is low, at the same time could not rule out a slight chance of showers Sunday night for the Cascades and eastern Douglas county and Monday along and east of the Cascades. Monday, will be much cooler (at least compared to Saturday and Sunday) with gusty north to northwest winds, especially east of the Cascades. Any precipitation will end Monday evening with skies clearing out and winds diminishing. Monday night will be colder with low temperatures near or below freezing in the Rogue and Illinois Valley. Tuesday through Tuesday night will dry with milder temperatures in the afternoon and another cool night, but low temperatures Tuesday night are not expected to be as cold. -Petrucelli Extended discussion...Wed 07 Apr through Sat 11 Apr 2021. The medium range models continue to show a wide range of solutions in the extended period, especially the latter half of the period. The 03/12Z GFS ensemble solution shows zonal flow aloft over Oregon on Wednesday, gradually backing to southwest Thursday into Thursday night as a long wave trough digs offshore. The offshore trough weakens Friday into Saturday, and what's left of it moves onshore Saturday night. By that time it will be weak with most of the energy far to the north of the Medford forecast area. The GFS is essential dry over the area until Friday night, then increasingly wet into Saturday night before drying out a bit Sunday. GFS ensemble members are mostly dry or nearly so Wednesday into Friday, with a wet period Saturday into Monday. Meanwhile, the 03/00Z EC ensemble has a stronger offshore long wave trough and is more progressive than the GFS. It consistently keeps the flow southwesterly over the area with a few embedded short waves passing through until it moves the upper trough onshore Friday night. This trough extends farther south than the GFS solution. As one might guess, the EC solution is wetter than the GFS in the Wednesday to Friday time frame, complete with a front supported by one of the short waves moving onshore Thursday. Most of the EC ensemble members are wet along the coast Wednesday into Sunday, drying out a bit Sunday into Tuesday. Overall, the EC has been more consistent and therefore is the preferred solution in this case. However, confidence in the extended forecast continues to be moderate at best early on, and low beyond day 5 or so. Both models build a long wave ridge into the west coast Saturday into Sunday with flow aloft turning to the northwest. Therefore, expect a drying and warming trend to commence as early as Sunday. The 8 to 14 day outlook, valid Sat 10 Apr to Fri 04 Apr, shows greater chances for below normal temperatures and below normal precipitation. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR... CA...None. Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Sunday to 11 PM PDT Monday for PZZ356-376. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Sunday to 11 AM PDT Monday for PZZ350-370. $$