819 FXUS61 KPBZ 040306 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1106 PM EDT Sat Apr 3 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather and a warming trend is expected for the weekend under high pressure. Rain chances return with an early week warm front. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Made some adjustment to sky cover overnight based on satellite, sfc obs, and 00Z upper air data. Previous...Dry air remains in place across the region into the evening hours. IR satellite shows some continued mid and upper level cloud cover associated with the passing trough through the area. This cloud cover will continue to hang around through the night, especially in the northeast allowing temps to moderate. Thus, ridging in the wake of the crossing shortwave should allow above average minimum temps. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Broadening high pressure should support yet another dry day on Sunday, with insolation lending to above average temperature values. Clouds should then increase later Monday as a shortwave in NW flow aloft, and a sfc warm front, approach the region. Scattered showers should move across the area Monday night as that wave, and its associated sfc warm front, track across the Upper Ohio Valley region. Blended solutions maintain precipitation in the form of rain showers during this timeframe, keeping thunder chances unattainable due to warm mid-levels. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Model ensembles indicate NW flow aloft around a closed low off the NE CONUS, and ahead of a Midwestern trough, should persist across the Upper Ohio Valley region through mid week. Periodic crossing shortwaves embedded in the NW flow aloft should return occasional scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to the forecast through the first half of the week. A deepening low across the Plains should then track east for the second half of the week, with continued periodic scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the region with its approach. Above average temperatures are expected to continue through the long term period. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR will persist through the TAF period. Mid-level clouds are expected tonight in response to a passing shortwave trough, but low levels remain dry enough to inhibit precipitation or lower cigs. Wind gusts will diminish this evening, though a period of llws is possible overnight with a LLJ. A mostly clear sky is expected under continued high pressure Sunday, with wind veering a bit toward northwest with time. .Outlook... High pressure will maintain dry VFR conditions through the weekend. Next chance of precip is Monday night. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$