743 FXUS63 KMKX 040250 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 950 PM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021 .UPDATE... (Issued 949 PM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021) Light and variable winds are expected through the overnight with the weaker pressure gradient. Some areas have quickly fallen into the mid to upper 40s due to the light winds and clear skies. It will be a little chilly tomorrow morning with temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s, but we'll quickly warm up as we head through the day with afternoon highs in the 70s for most. Southeast winds though will keep temperatures in the 50s to low 60s closer to Lake Michigan. The elevated fire weather conditions will continue Sunday as relative humidity values are expected to drop into the 20s inland from Lake Michigan during the afternoon with south to southeast winds 10-15 mph. RAH && .SHORT TERM... (Issued 248 PM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021) Tonight and Sunday: Winds are diminishing quickly this afternoon as a weak low pressure area moves into central WI. Northeasterly winds behind this system will accelerate down the lake quicker than inland areas as a weak back door cold front overnight. Aside for a few elevated NE winds near the lakeshore, there is no impact with this feature. However, this will set us up for steady southeast winds Sunday morning that will gradually become southerly inland through the afternoon. That onshore wind component will keep lakeshore areas cooler with highs only in the upper 50s. Inland areas will get a little warmer than they got today with highs in the lower 70s. Models continue to struggle with dewpoints, as is typical for spring. Dewpoints have risen into the lower 30s today and I expect a similar situation for Sunday with no more moisture advection. Leaned heavily on CONSMOS for Td values, but nudged them down a bit from there. This yields min RH values in the mid to upper 20 percent range once again for areas inland from the lakeshore. Therefore, will continue to the messaging for elevated fire weather conditions. Cronce && .LONG TERM... (Issued 248 PM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021) Sunday night through Saturday: The 850mb low level jet will nose into Iowa and southwest WI Sunday night. There are hints of a mid level shortwave trough moving through, along with an entrance region of an upper jet as well. Some models are producing a lot of convection with these features coming together Sunday night, but the erroneous high dewpoints need to be considered. Kept slight chance showers/storms going for mainly south central WI late Sun nt. There is a better chance for convection to roll across central WI Monday afternoon/evening with the reinvigoration of the low level jet and the possibility of an upstream system that could already be going from MN. A closed upper low will develop over the Pacific Northwest Monday night and reach the Midwest on Thursday. As with any closed upper low this far out into the forecast, there is a lot of uncertainty with its track. Nevertheless, this system has the potential to bring beneficial rainfall and scattered thunderstorms to southern Wisconsin next week. Cronce && .AVIATION... (Issued 949 PM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021) VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period with light and variable winds through the overnight becoming more southeasterly Sunday morning. Areas farther inland from lake Michigan will see winds shift more to the south for the afternoon and evening. We'll see some high clouds move into the area Sunday morning and increase in coverage through the day. RAH && .MARINE... (Issued 248 PM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021) Winds have diminished significantly and a lake breeze developed in Sheboygan already. Comfortable with allowing the Small Craft Advy to expire at 3 pm. A weak cold front will slide down Lake Michigan tonight and bring an abrupt shift in wind direction and a brief period of gusty northeast winds up to 20 kt. Steady southeast winds developing Sunday will become more southerly on Monday. Cronce && .FIRE WEATHER...(Issued 248 PM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021) Dewpoints have risen into the lower 30s today with very weak moisture advection and I expect a similar situation for Sunday with no additional moisture advection. We are expecting min RH values in the mid to upper 20 percent range once again for areas inland from the lakeshore. Winds will become steady 12 to 18 mph out of the southeast in the morning and southerly in the afternoon. Therefore, will continue to the messaging for elevated fire weather conditions. Cronce && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee