078 FXUS61 KBUF 040250 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1050 PM EDT Sat Apr 3 2021 .SYNOPSIS... We can expect gradual day to day warming through much of the upcoming week with very little in the way of measurable precipitation. The next real opportunity for widespread showers will come late in the week when a complex weather system will move through the Great Lakes region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Radar shows a broken line of decaying showers across eastern Lake Ontario this evening. Only a trace to a few hundredths of an inch are possible along the lake shore late this evening. An area of weak low pressure over Michigan and Lake Huron will track across the region tonight and clearing will take place overnight. Ridging over the nations mid section will expand across the Upper Great Lakes Easter Sunday and Sunday night...promoting fair dry weather for our forecast area. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... After a dry day Monday a warm front embedded within northwest flow will nudge towards our region from the Central Great Lakes. Showers along this front may clip the Southern Tier Monday Night. Tuesday will feature a warming airmass behind this warm front, though another shortwave within a still northwest flow may yield additional rain showers...mainly across WNY later Tuesday and into Tuesday Night. Instability axis will remain well to our south and west...thus no thunder expected. Temperatures will average above normal...with highs Tuesday reaching the lower 60s across WNY, and mid 50s east of Lake Ontario. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A closed upper level low will slowly spin east and northward this period...from the Central Plains Wednesday to areas east and north by the periods end. Model guidance spread increases as we go along in time with the track of this low...with the ECMWF/ and its ensembles keeping a southerly track, near the Ohio Valley by Saturday, while the 12Z GFS/GEFS takes this closed low towards southern Canada/James Bay by Saturday. Wednesday will feature the lowest chances for rain showers...but by Thursday and Friday chances for showers will rapidly increase as this closed low tracks closer to our region. The 12Z GEFS plumes also support later Thursday and into Friday as the time period most likely for rain showers. Mild, above normal temperature airmass will remain across our region ahead of this closed low through Friday. Cooler air associated with this upper level low will likely be near our region by Saturday. Cooler temperatures, though still above normal, with chances for rain showers within cold air advection will start the new weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... While VFR conditions will be in place for most areas during this period...there will be several hours of MVFR cigs east of Lake Ontario (KART and KGTB) later tonight (05-10z). A weak area of low pressure will track across the region and light, south-southeast winds will become northwest by Sunday morning. Outlook... Sunday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Thursday...Mainly VFR with scattered showers. && .MARINE... A light to gentle breeze expected for the next few days, as high pressure over the East Coast maintains fairly quiet weather through the middle of the coming week. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RSH NEAR TERM...HSK/RSH SHORT TERM...Thomas LONG TERM...Thomas AVIATION...HSK/RSH MARINE...HSK/SW