257 FXUS61 KGYX 040232 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1032 PM EDT Sat Apr 3 2021 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure and and dry conditions will continue through the weekend. A retrograding area of low pressure over the waters will drift west on Monday resulting in increased cloud cover and precipitation chances along with gusty northwesterly winds. High pressure will then build into New England for the middle of the week before a frontal system increases precipitation chances again on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... 1030 PM Update...Just a few minor adjustments to temperatures based on latest observational trends this evening. Otherwise, have raised winds for coastal and central/Midcoast Maine zones for Sunday as low pressure gradually backs in from the east. 645 PM Update...No big changes to the forecast for the overnight hours. Good radiating conditions are expected this evening and temperatures will drop pretty quickly, especially at the normally better radiators. Previously... High pressure builds to our S and W, and should see some decoupling, although there will still be some boundary lyr NW flow, so some of the open areas will not decouple as quickly, or at all. Either way it will be cold tonight with lows ranging from 10-15 in the mtns to the low to mid 20s in the south. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Sunday is expected to be mainly sunny and dry. Winds will begin to pick up later in the morning and during the afternoon, especially in the ern zones, as coastal to our SE shifts back to W a bit. Winds could gusts to around 25-30 mph in the east by late afternoon. Precip will be working into eastern ME late in the day as well, but should hold making it into the CWA until after darks, considering very dry air mass in place. Highs range from around 50 in the N to the mid to upper 50s in the S. Sunday night will see winds start to pick a little more and move further W. Also, showers will begin to move into ern zones, and could even be mixed with snow at times away from the coast. However, given the initially dry air, think anything that falls will be showery and light, with no snow accums. Low will range from the upper 20s in the N to the mid to upper 30s in the S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Overview: The long term portion of the forecast will be marked by a strong blocking ridge across the Atlantic and a retrograding area of low pressure between the Canadian Maritimes and eastern Quebec. This will keep temperatures seasonably cool and provide a few chances for scattered showers. Ensemble and deterministic guidance suggest that this blocking pattern will weaken towards the end of the week, which would support a more transient weather pattern. Impacts: Minimal impacts are currently expected as the area of low pressure will remain far enough offshore to prevent significant precipitation. While winds will be gusty on Monday, they are currently not expected to be strong enough to cause any major impacts. Forecast Details: An area of low pressure near the Canadian Maritimes will get caught in a large ridge centered across the Atlantic, which will cause the low to retrograde westward back towards the Maine coast late Sunday night and into Monday. This will result in increased cloud cover and a chance for scattered showers across the region, especially in eastern locations. As the pressure gradient increases during the day, expecting northwesterly winds to increase and gust to between 25-30 mph, especially near the coast. Generally went above NBM winds and PoPs for this period, with the highest PoPs located across the MidCoast and eastern zones based on ensemble guidance and the location of the low. The ECMWF and for the most part Canadian ensembles are generally drier than the GFS, but the seemingly higher GFS ensemble mean appears to be largely driven by a few wet outlier solutions. Given the distance between the area of low pressure to the coastline and lack of forcing to the west, generally weighed QPF more heavily on the ECMWF and CMC ensembles but did account some for the GFS. The offshore flow will still allow temperatures to reach the 50s in most locations. The low pressure system will begin to move towards the east again on Monday night and Tuesday, which will decrease precipitation chances as well as winds. This should allow for partly to mostly sunny skies on Tuesday, especially away from the coast with high temperatures reaching the 50s and lower 60s. High pressure will keep the weather tranquil for Wednesday and Thursday with partly cloudy skies dominating as high temperatures reach the 50s and 60s. Precipitation chances will then increase again on Friday and through the upcoming weekend as an area of low pressure and frontal system pass nearby. Temperatures will still be warm into the 50s though and therefore rain is the most favored precipitation type. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short Term...Mainly VFR through Sunday evening. May see some low cigs at ME terminals late sunday night. Long Term... Mostly VFR conditions expected but an area of low pressure lurking offshore may provide some scattered showers and lower ceilings on Monday, especially across eastern terminals. In addition, northwesterly winds may gust up to 25 kts, especially during the afternoon. A few upslope showers will also be possible across northern and mountain terminals on Monday and Tuesday. VFR conditions are then expected for Tuesday through Thursday. && .MARINE... Short Term...Coastal low S of Nova Scotia , shifts back to the W a bit Sunday and Sunday night, while sfc high holds to the SW. This will allow for tightening pres gradient and increasing winds, with SCA winds from the NW a good bet Sunday night into Monday. There is a chance for a short period of gales late sunday into early Monday over the ern waters. Long Term... SCA conditions expected on Monday as a retrograding area of low pressure moves east of the waters. Scattered showers will also be possible, especially across eastern zones. Northwesterly winds and seas will diminish on Tuesday through the middle of the week as the low moves east further east. && .FIRE WEATHER... After good RH recovery tonight, will see another dry day on Sunday, although not quite as dry, but still on the breezy side. Min Rh will be around 20% with wind gusts of 20-30 mph. These gusts may be up to 35 MPH over Midcoast zones late in the day Sunday. This will still lead to the potential for dangerous fire growth. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Sunday to 5 PM EDT Monday for ANZ153-154. Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning for ANZ150>152. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Tubbs NEAR TERM...Ekster SHORT TERM...Cempa LONG TERM...Tubbs AVIATION...Cempa/Tubbs MARINE...Cempa/Tubbs