350 FXUS62 KRAH 021036 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Raleigh NC 636 AM EDT Fri Apr 2 2021 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build into the area through the end of the week, and remain over the region through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 320 AM Friday... ...Freeze Warning continues for all of Central NC until 9 AM... High pressure centered over IL/IN as of 3 AM, will remain in place today before slowly building east into the mid-Atlantic tonight. The strong northwesterly gradient winds will persist today before tapering off as the high builds in. Aloft, the upper trough will sit over the East Coast through today, shifting east offshore this evening and lifting northeast away from the area tonight. Expect some mid-level clouds over the area this morning as the vort max swings through the base of the trough. Do not expect any precipitation given how dry the lower levels are. If there were to be any precipitation, it would likely be virga, maybe even a brief, stray flurry between the Triad and Triangle. Regardless, no impacts are expected. Despite the plentiful sunshine, highs will struggle to get out of the 40s across much of central NC. mid 40s north to low 50s south expected. With the high building over the region overnight, low-level thicknesses will bottom out in the 1285-1300 meter range by 12Z Saturday. This, combined with the clear skies and calm to light winds should result in excellent radiational cooling conditions and lows bottoming out in the low to mid 20s. These lows will be near record for April 2. Another Freeze Warning will likely be issued this morning for tonight/Saturday morning. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM Friday... ...Continued unseasonably cold temperatures with another Freeze Warning likely for 2-9 AM tonight/Saturday morning... High pressure will remain over the region on Saturday, shifting gradually south-southwestward Saturday night. Aloft, generally expect NW flow to dominate, with a couple of weak disturbances in the mid-levels possibly resulting in some fleeting clouds during the aft/eve hours. Low level thicknesses will increase to around 1340 meters by 12Z Sunday. Temperatures are expected to rebound some, with highs in the mid 50s and lows generally in the low to mid 30s. With some locations, especially the usual cold spots, possibly dropping below freezing again Saturday night, a Freeze Watch is possible. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 355 AM Friday... 00Z/2nd EPS and GEFS means are in much agreement than 12-24 hrs ago with large scale flow across the CONUS during the medium range, which includes a trend toward a deeper trough/closed low ampliying from srn BC and the Pacific Northwest at the start of the period to the cntl Plains and mid MS Valley by Wed-Thu. Preceding that slow- moving low, an amplifying ridge aloft over the MS Valley will be slow to progress ewd owing to high latitude blocking over the N. Atlantic. Downstram of that ridge, generally dry, nwly flow aloft will result across cntl NC through at least Tue night. At the surface, modified cP high pressure initially over the Southeast will drift offshore through Mon, by which time an Appalachian-lee trough will develop across the middle Atlantic and Carolinas. Residual continental/dry air accompanying the ridge will be slow to modify over the Carolinas, with Atlantic and Gulf trajectories both directed toward the Great Plains and MS Valley until Wed-Thu, at which time a backdoor cold front and focus for convection is forecast to have settled into the srn middle Atlantic (invof cntl NC). As such, the next chance of rain will not be until Wed-Thu, with warming and above average temperatures in the 70s-lwr 80s south of the front each day next week. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 635 AM Friday... 24 hour TAF period: High confidence VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. NW winds of 8-12 kts will continue, with gusts around 20 kts likely during the day. Winds will then decrease with gusts diminishing after 00Z Saturday, becoming calm to light and variable overnight. Looking ahead: High pressure and VFR conditions will prevail into the middle of next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... As of 330 PM Thursday... While spring green-up and a wetting rain in the past 24 hours will mitigate risk today, fire weather parameters are forecast to be critical Fri as gusty winds continue and an even drier airmass moves into the region. Relative humidity will dip to near 20%, with winds gusting to 25 mph, therefore an Increased Fire Danger Statement has been issued for all of central North Carolina from late Friday morning through Friday evening. && .CLIMATE... As of 1030 AM Thursday... Record low temperatures for Friday, April 2 GSO RDU FAY 24 (1923) 26 (1923) 26 (1923) Record low temperatures for Saturday, April 3 GSO RDU FAY 25 (1992) 25 (1992) 30 (1992) && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for NCZ007>011-021>028- 038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JJT NEAR TERM...KC SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...MWS AVIATION...KC FIRE WEATHER...MWS/JJT CLIMATE...RAH