269 FXUS64 KLUB 011745 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1245 PM CDT Thu Apr 1 2021 .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF period. Southerly winds are increasing this afternoon as the surface pressure gradient tightens across the region. Late tonight a low level jet will strengthen which may lead to a period of low level wind shear primarily at KCDS through early tomorrow morning. Southerly winds will be even breezier across the area beginning late tomorrow morning. && PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 322 AM CDT Thu Apr 1 2021/ SHORT TERM... Quiet and warmer weather is expected today and tonight. Upper level high pressure west of the area this morning will shift overhead tonight. This will help gradually deepen the surface low pressure trough along the lee side of the Rockies leading to modest southerly breezes today, peaking probably around 20 to 25 mph sustained in the extreme southwest Texas Panhandle this afternoon with peak sustained winds 10 to 20 mph elsewhere. A low level jet is expected to develop tonight mainly from the Texas Panhandle northeast through Kansas, but will also lead to a modest uptick in wind speeds in the South Plains region and milder temperatures, especially combined with an increase in high clouds overnight. RMcQueen LONG TERM... The upper low currently situated just off the southern California coast will weaken to an open wave trough over the Four Corners region by tomorrow afternoon. Models do hint at some light precip possible tomorrow afternoon and Saturday afternoon as the upper trough approaches the region, but overall moisture at all levels will be lacking in addition to any significant lift needed. The best upper level lift will pass overhead tomorrow afternoon for a very brief period of time and will not have any significant moisture to use. Therefore the forecast will continue to remain dry. Tomorrow will be on the breezy side thanks to a surface trough stretching from central Canada to the south-central US. Winds will drop to 10 mph or less by late tomorrow night as surface ridging takes over the region. Upper ridging will dominate the region through the weekend allowing temps to warm into the upper 70s/low 80s by Easter Sunday. Upper flow will become more zonal on Monday with winds responding to another surface trough by becoming breezy once again. Winds will likely remain on the breezy side through Tuesday morning as a surface low associated with the surface trough moves southward across the Central Plains as an upper low begins to move across the Inner Mountain West. Models start to diverge with the forecast pattern by mid week starting with the aforementioned upper low. The GFS keeps the upper low well to our north near South Dakota as it moves eastward. This results in a mild Pacific front pushing through the region by Wednesday afternoon. The ECMWF bring the upper low further south resulting in a slightly stronger cold front (highs in the 60s/70s Wednesday vs the 70s/80s shown by the GFS). The ECMWF then has the upper low track southeastward into the southern Mississippi River Valley by late next Thursday. The GFS brings the upper low across the Great Lakes by late Thursday. Both models do place Texas under upper ridging by next Thursday. FIRE WEATHER... Dry and warmer weather today will combine with an increase in wind speeds at the 20 foot level, especially across the northwestern South Plains and extreme southwest Texas Panhandle. We will issue a Fire Danger statement for this afternoon for a broader area as energy release component (ERC) levels continue to increase from the New Mexico border into the Rolling Plains. RMcQueen && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 58/05/55