090 FXUS64 KSJT 281853 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 153 PM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 150 PM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021 High pressure is currently sprawled out across most of the southern Plains this afternoon, while a cold front is draped along the Texas Gulf Coast. This pressure gradient between the two features is resulting in some breezy conditions across the Concho Valley, Edwards Plateau and the northwest Hill Country this afternoon. By tonight, high pressure will shift eastward, which should allow winds to shift out of the southeast. Skies will be clear, allowing low temperatures to fall into the low to mid 40s. Tomorrow, southerly return flow will set up across much of west Texas as a new surface low develops in the lee of the Colorado Rockies. The north-south pressure gradient will increase once again, resulting in winds of 15-25 mph with some gusts over 30 possible by the afternoon. High temperatures are expected to reach into the upper 70s to low 80s as a warmer airmass is advected into the region. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 119 AM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021 Zonal flow aloft expected Monday, while at the surface and low levels, warm southerly flow and warming of the 850 mb thermal ridge will result in highs in the mid to upper 70s with sunny skies. With a strengthening surface low over eastern Colorado and high over the southern Mississippi Valley, a strengthening surface pressure gradient will result in gusty south winds Monday afternoon of 15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Lows Monday night will be in the low to mid 50s, with breezy south winds continuing. A cold front will start to move through the region during the day Tuesday. Differences in the timing of the front results in a difficult high temperature forecast. Since the NAM model usually does best with fronts, we tend to favor that model for the front's timing. Thus, the current forecast indicates highs Tuesday in the Big Country in the 70s due to the front having passed through that region earlier, while south of the Big Country, significant pre- frontal warming of the air mass will bring highs in the low to upper 80s. Expect the front to make it through the I-10 corridor by late Tuesday evening, with cool lows in the 40s expected that night. Gusty north to northeast winds of 15-25 mph with gusts of 30-35 mph are expected Tuesday night/Wednesday morning behind the front. Cold air advection will continue Wednesday while surface high pressure moves into the region, with highs in the low to mid 60s. Gusty north to northeast winds will continue, and perhaps be a little stronger (gusts of 35-40 mph). Upper level ridging will start to move over the region Thursday through Friday while warmer south to southeast low level/surface flow returns, bringing slow warming, with highs Thursday and Friday in the mid to upper 60s. The warming trend will continue Saturday as the south flow continues and the 850 mb thermal ridge warms, resulting in highs in the low to mid 70s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1152 AM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021 VFR expected through the entire TAF period, with breezy conditions for southern terminals. Winds will become light overnight, before turning southerly and increasing tomorrow morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 45 80 54 81 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 41 81 52 88 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 38 79 52 83 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 40 79 52 84 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 47 81 54 79 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 42 78 53 87 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM....SJH AVIATION...SK