347 FXUS63 KMQT 280900 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 500 AM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 228 AM EDT SUN MAR 28 2021 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the southern plains to the upper Great Lakes this morning. This trough moves to the lower Great Lakes by this evening with shortwave ridging moving in later tonight into the upper Great Lakes. 850-500 mb q-vector convergence moves out this morning along with deeper moisture. Lake enhancement will set in for early this morning along with some north upslope flow and this is covered well in the going forecast. Lingering pops will be across the north central because of the lake enhancement and upslope. Will hang on to cloud cover a bit longer as well as cold air aloft will be moving across Lake Superior and kept trend going until this evening when drier air arrives with high pressure to decrease the clouds. Overall, did not make too many changes to the going forecast except to hang on to pops longer and clouds longer today as well. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 458 AM EDT SUN MAR 28 2021 A temperature rollercoaster will continue through the longterm period as Upper Michigan sees a chance for precipitation along a cold front on Tuesday and some light lake-effect chances Wednesday into early Thursday. A building ridge with increasing 850mb temps from downsloping through the Dakotas on Monday will bring highs as much as 20 degrees above normal. Blocked flow downstream will force an approaching low to the north through Canada as it brings a potent cold front across the Upper Midwest and Upper Michigan on Tuesday morning. A secondary cold front with a reinforcing shot of arctic air on Wednesday morning will bring sfc temps into the 20s as model 850mb temps are near -18 to -20 C. NW flow with cooler air will persist through Thursday morning as this trof's progression slows down as a strong ridge and anomalously positive heights remain locked over the N Atlantic and Greenland. This will bring weak ridging over the central CONUS as ridging over the N Pacific pushes a trof into the Pacific NW. First shot of colder air is brief as models suggest SW winds to move in Sunday night bringing 850mb temps up to 8 to 10C depending on your model preference. This will bring gusty winds from the S through the day and temperatures pushing 60 across the west half and to around 50 across the east as Lk Michigan keeps things cooler. Continued to increased the gusts on Monday, despite some increased BL stability. Based on model soundings, initialized with the 90th pctl for gusts on Monday with some minor localization tweaks...like in downslope-favored areas as gusts commonly exceed guidance in southerly WAA events in these locations. Not out of the question some locations in the higher terrain of Baraga and Marquette Counties as well as along the Superior shoreline east of Marquette see gusts push 40mph in the late aftn/evening. These strong southerly winds will also bring a concern for some lakeshore flooding and beach erosion on the Lake Michigan shorelines Monday evening. May temperatures come back down to March, or late February standards for Tuesday as a sharp cold front passes across the UP. This will bring another chance for some light pcpn across Upper Michigan, with some snow mixing in at times...but don't go busting out your rulers for this one. Model 850mb winds along the cold front are around 50kts and some model soundings have some of these stronger winds mixing down to the sfc. While it will be blustery for most of the UP on Tuesday, the Keweenaw could see some westerly wind gusts push 40 mph Tuesday evening. A secondary cold front will shift across the UP late Tuesday night...this time bringing a bigger punch in the form of an arctic air mass. With gusty winds in store, this one will feel a bit more like winter as wind chills fall into the single digits by late Tuesday night/early Wed and remain in the low teens for much of the day Wednesday. NW flow and 850mb temps near -17C will bring a chance for some light LES through Thursday morning, but given the pretty dry airmass and model soundings with this airmass, not looking like there will be a ton of accumulation. Weak ridging starts to move back in Thursday into Friday across the central CONUS, but with downstream blocking in place, Upper Michigan will be in a bit of a holding pattern with above normal temperatures and a few small chances of pcpn through the weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) Issued at 117 AM EDT SUN MAR 28 2021 As low pres moving across the western Great Lakes departs to the northeast, -sn will diminish/end from w to e overnight thru this morning. Until then, expect -sn and mostly LIFR conditions to prevail at KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. Improvement will begin at KIWD over the next few hrs, leading to a period of VFR late in the night. Will then likely see bkn MVFR cigs at KIWD for a good part of the day, though there will be some periods of VFR. VFR will become prevailing by late aftn. At KCMX, expect improvement to MVFR by sunrise. While MVFR cigs will likely prevail for much of the day, the MVFR cigs will scatter out to VFR at times. VFR will become prevailing late in the afternoon. At KSAW, expect improvement to IFR this morning, then MVFR by aftn. MVFR cigs should clear out to VFR by early evening. On the backside of the departing low, gusty nw winds will develop. At KIWD, gusts to around 20kt are expected overnight into the aftn hrs. At KSAW/KCMX nnw winds should gust to 30-35kt, perhaps up to 40kt at times, late in the night and this morning. && .MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 228 AM EDT SUN MAR 28 2021 North gales to 35-40 knots will continue over central and eastern Lake Superior into this afternoon with colder air moving in. The active weather period will continue from Monday into Wednesday night as wind gusts of around 30 knots persist through that timeframe over the lake. There could be gale force gusts to 35 knots over north central and eastern Lake Superior on Mon from the south. Next gale event would be southwesterly gales on Tue to 40 knots across the west half of Lake Superior. Several gale events during this period look likely. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Lakeshore Flood Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ006. Lake Superior... Gale Warning from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ251-267. Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ266. Gale Warning until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LSZ264-265. Gale Warning until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LSZ249-250. Gale Warning until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LSZ248. Gale Warning until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for LSZ243>245. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM...JAW AVIATION...Rolfson MARINE...07