302 FXUS64 KBMX 271154 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 654 AM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021 .UPDATE... For 12Z Aviation. && .SHORT TERM... /Updated at 0350 AM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021/ Through Sunday The front has pretty much lifted north of most of the area this morning. This is evident with the rain band placement as well as dewpoints in the 60s and generally southerly winds for all of the area. So the main focus for showers and storms should be well to our north this morning. Will continue to mention 20 to 50 PoPs for the afternoon as we are in the southerly flow. There is a hint at a weak pre-frontal trough that may develop and this could potentially be the focus needed to have the more concentrated area of scattered showers and storms. Severe weather for today and early tonight should be minimal at best with the only the potential for a stronger storm if it could realize enough lift. As we work into the evening hours we should see activity ongoing to our west. Looks like the front and associated showers/storms will still be along the Mississippi around Midnight. The consensus of the models bring the edge of the showers and storms into the area between 3 and 6 AM, so will continue to advertise the 3 AM start time in our west and then slide east through the morning and into the early afternoon. The front does appear to be a touch more robust as it moves through the area and the severe threat now appears to be for all of Central Alabama. So what are we looking at? Well, we should see a line of showers and storms developing in eastern Texas/southern Arkansas this afternoon ahead of the front and developing into a MCS that will then slide east through the night. The highest threat for severe weather will be to our north, closer to the triple point of the system in northern Arkansas and western Tennessee. We will be getting the trailing cold front and decaying edge of the MCS. With that said there should be enough instability around early morning in the northwest to result in strong winds as well as large hail with the stronger storms along the line. Perhaps could even see a spin up tornado with this QLCS environment. Looks the best chance for severe weather will be in the north and northwest, where a slight risk is possible. Meanwhile the rest of the area will be under a marginal. At this time it appears that the severe threat may reach the Birmingham metro between 6 and 9 AM, then the Montgomery metro between 12 and 2 PM and then end in the forecast area between 5 and 6 PM. Depending on the exact timing of the line we may see an uptick in the storms between 1 and 3 pm if the peak heating of the day and increased surfaced based CAPE can be realized in the southeast. Could still see some rain and thunderstorms after that but the threat should diminish as the outflow races out. 16 .LONG TERM... /Updated at 0350 AM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021/ Sunday night through Tuesday. With the cold front stalled across the Gulf of Mexico, surface high pressure and much drier, northerly flow will move into the area and provide at least one day of pleasant Spring weather on Monday starting off in the 40s then warming into the upper 60s/lower 70s under mostly sunny skies. The weather becomes active again on Tuesday as the low-level ridge builds further to our east and southerly flow returns to the area. The stalled front to our south will begin lifting northward as an effective warm front in response to broad troughing over the Central CONUS. Expect an uptick in showers and a few thunderstorms across the area by Tuesday afternoon & night as warm, moist air advects inland. At the same time, a cold front will be racing into the Lower MS Valley as the associated surface low moves through Ontario. Wednesday through Friday. A complex of widespread showers and thunderstorms will spread across Central AL through the day on Wednesday as the cold front sweeps through the area. Latest model guidance has trended towards better agreement in terms of the timing with this system and generally centers the cold front just to the northwest of the I20/59 corridor by midday. As dewpoints rise to near 70 degrees Wednesday afternoon, a corridor of unstable air (MUCAPE ~1500 J/kg) would combine with strong, nearly unidirectional shear to provide a means of organized updrafts and the potential for some strong storms which could produce damaging winds and large hail. However, there are some questions regarding how far north the warm front lifts before the cold front moves through. Guidance seems to suggest the best potential for strong storms would reside over the southern half of Central AL or moreso the coastal areas to our south. Will hold off on adding a severe threat to the forecast until we have a better understanding of the evolution of the warm front which will undoubtedly have large implications on the mesoscale environment. Otherwise, broad ridging builds in behind this system on Thursday through the end of the week, and we'll see much cooler, dry air move back into the Southeast with highs in the 50s and 60s. Lows Thursday & Friday mornings will drop into the mid 30s, potentially near freezing in our northern locations, so we'll need to assess the potential for frost if this trend continues. 86 && .AVIATION... 12Z TAF Discussion. The warm front has lifted north of the area and showers and storms are now concentrated along it. Southerly flow will help showers and storms develop in the western half of the area today. Went went prob30 for BHM and TCL only for the afternoon. After 9z we will begin to see the line of showers and storms move into the area from the west. Questions on how fast it will work in is the question, but tried to time out the start time at BHM and TCL before 10z. 16 && .FIRE WEATHER... Much warmer temperatures today as increasing southerly winds brings gulf moisture northward. Most of the rain will be along of and north of I-20. A cold front will push southward across central Alabama on Sunday and produce numerous showers and thunderstorms from early morning through the afternoon. Some of the storms may become severe. No fire weather concerns due to moist ground fuels and high RH values. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 79 64 71 38 67 / 30 40 90 10 10 Anniston 81 66 72 40 70 / 30 30 90 10 10 Birmingham 80 67 71 41 68 / 30 50 90 10 10 Tuscaloosa 83 67 70 41 68 / 30 50 90 10 10 Calera 80 66 72 42 68 / 20 40 90 10 10 Auburn 80 65 76 44 68 / 10 10 80 30 10 Montgomery 84 68 78 47 70 / 10 20 80 30 20 Troy 85 66 80 50 71 / 10 10 80 30 20 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/... None. && $$