702 
FXUS63 KOAX 251121
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
621 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

Today:
A weak shortwave is moving across the area this morning and 
leading to light returns on the radar. It would seem most of it 
isn't reaching the ground as stations aren't reporting any 
precipitation heavier than drizzle. High temperatures today should
be a few degrees warmer than yesterday as there should be a bit 
more sunshine today. Winds will also be signficantly calmer so it 
shouldn't be too bad of a day in comparison to the wind and rain 
over the past few days. 

Friday and Saturday:
A surface low is expected to develop off the Rocky Mountains
Friday in western Kansas. Strong southerly flow is expected east
of the low and will advect warmer and more moist temperatures 
into the area. Temperatures should reach 60 degrees in southeast 
Nebraska and southwest Iowa and dewpoint temperatures should 
increase close to 50 degrees. The synoptic pattern will be 
favorable for low top mini supercells. There is a marginal risk 
for severe weather along the NE/KS border. A strong low level jet 
(LLJ) and sufficient mixed layer instability could lead to 
elevated storms Friday evening. The primary threats from any storm
development would be hail and strong winds. However, an isolated 
tornado cannot be ruled out. Storms and rain may linger into 
Saturday morning and precipitation should exit the area by noon. 
Temperatures are forecast to reach about 60 degrees on Saturday, 
but the day is likely to be dominated by strong northwest winds 
with gusts up to 30 mph

Sunday through Wednesday:
Beyond Saturday, the forecast should be dry and mostly pleasant.
Low level flow is expected to rotate to out of the southwest and
will lead to strong, persistent warm air advection through
Tuesday. This should lead to temperatures 10 to 20 degrees above
normal. The entire forecast area is expected to reach at least 70
degrees. Areas along the South Dakota/Nebraska border may even
reach 80 degrees. Winds Monday will be brisk at 20 to 25 mph and
gusting up to 35 mph. A cool off is expected to take place
sometime Tuesday as the next system moves over the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

Area of MVFR cigs near FL025 will spread into KOMA and KLNK TAF
sites this morning and likely linger through 21Z. Otherwise VFR
cigs are forecast at all sites with light northeast to southeast
winds through the end of the TAF period. Isolated showers through
15Z should remain east of KOMA and KLNK. There is a small chance
for isolated showers popping up late this afternoon as well.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fajman
AVIATION...Dergan