390 FXUS64 KLUB 221730 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1230 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021 .AVIATION... Thunderstorms currently affecting the KLBB terminal will persist for another hour or so. Clearing skies were noted to the west of the region in New Mexico and will make its way into KLBB and KPVW this afternoon a little later than previously anticipated. As this occurs, westerly winds will increase and may also lead to visby restrictions due to BLDU. Thunderstorms are expected at KCDS in a narrow window around 21-23Z or so before clearing out and an increase in northwesterly winds. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1154 AM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021/ UPDATE... Only some minor tweaks were made to the forecast for this afternoon. A large amount of strong lift was currently moving overhead as seen on water vapor imagery. Precip chances were increased area wide especially off the caprock and brought back farther west. Chances for severe thunderstorms are still possible mostly off the caprock this afternoon. Cloud cover has kept temperatures cool today which may keep storms mostly elevated so hail and wind will continue to be the main threats with storms that do develop within stronger instability off the caprock. Clearing in the west also looks to be delayed today but strong winds and blowing dust is still expected once clouds clear out. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 316 AM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021/ SHORT TERM... Another dynamic storm system will move across the southern High Plains today. This storm is anchored by an upper level closed low moving southeastward from southern Utah to northeastern Arizona early this morning and is progged to be near Albuquerque at noon and Amarillo at 7 PM. Mid-level warm advection and upper level diffluence is resulting in an increase in radar reflectivity to the west and southwest of Lubbock indicative of developing showers aloft. These showers will spread eastward through the morning as the lift and warm advection moves eastward. As the upper low approaches the Panhandle this afternoon, a dryline will begin to push eastward into the forecast area with the dryline expected to be near the Caprock escarpment by mid-afternoon. Increasing low level moisture on the south winds throughout the morning and early afternoon and cooling mid-level temperatures will result in increasing instability ahead of the dryline with scattered thunderstorms likely to develop across the eastern counties. Shear/instability combo would lead to the potential for supercell development and associated severe threat. West of the dryline will see quick drying and an increase in southwest to west winds into Wind Advisory criteria for a good portion of the South Plains and adjacent areas of the Rolling Plains along. To continue with the dynamism of the system, the last piece of lift will combine with wrapping around moisture to generate showers, possibly as far south as Lubbock. Winds will be slow to diminish this evening, although any precipitation should end no later than early evening hours. Clearing skies and cold advection behind a Canadian cold front will drop temperatures below seasonal average. LONG TERM... An active long wave pattern will lead to a second potent upper level low rounding the base of a deepening trough across the southwest CONUS and West Texas during the day Tuesday. The low will evolve into an open wave as the trough continues to push south on Wednesday. Pressure falls over the Big Bend area and southeast New Mexico will pull a cold front south late Tuesday into early Wednesday with rain expected along and behind the front through early Thursday morning. Rain chances will be scattered and light with limited thermal instability to produce any thunderstorms. Temperatures will drop into the 50s and 60s for Wednesday and Thursday. A third wave arrives Friday, passing our region to the north as the stronger earlier systems pull the trough north. Precipitation with the third wave will be north of our area but temperatures will climb to around 70 for most of us as moderate west- southwest surface winds spread across the region. The pattern quiets for next weekend with nice Spring weather expected attm. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ033>037- 039>043. Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ028>031- 033>037-039>043. && $$ 01