986 FXUS62 KCAE 210549 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 149 AM EDT Sun Mar 21 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Some possible showers over the eastern and southern Midlands tonight and Sunday morning, otherwise cool and fair through mid week. A warming trend is expected throughout the week as an upper ridge builds over the region. Chances of rain will increase after mid week as a low pressure system approaches the region. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... A coastal trough combined with ridging from the north has triggered some isentropic lift and weak showers across the eastern Midlands and the CSRA this evening. Low level air remains fairly dry so this precipitation is expected to remain light. Hi-res guidance has trended towards stronger warm advection and isentropic lift with a 40 knot 850mb easterly jet developing along the coast. Based on current radar trends, shower activity is out performing the hi-res suite along the eastern FA. The hi-res guidance picks shower activity up dramatically in the next few hours. However, this is likely overdoing the geographic extent of the shower activity a bit, as the hi-res suite is not currently representing the low level moisture field very well to west. So while shower activity will likely become more widespread overnight as PWATs continue to increase, expecting the majority to remain in eastern and southern Midlands and CSRA. But given how the hi-res has been under-doing the showers so far, and the current satellite and radar trends, bumped PoPs up across the region to a chance, and likely across some of the southern FA. Winds will remain up at 5-10 knots from northeast throughout the night. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Sunday and Sunday night: What limited light rainfall that may be occurring over the eastern cwa will quickly be moving back towards the coast during the morning hours. Upper trough slowly moves closer to the coast, while at the surface the coastal trough will remain off the coast and high pressure builds in from the north. Clouds through the day, along with continued northeasterly flow, will keep temperatures on the cool side. However they should still be warmer than Saturday, with highs in the lower 60s. Slow warming trend continues into Sunday night, with lows in the 40s. Monday and Monday night: Upper trough will be pushing away from the area, while upper ridging builds in briefly behind it. Surface high pressure will continue, and dry conditions should prevail through Monday night. There should be more sunshine with the ridge moving through, and this will continue to allow temperatures to moderate. highs are expected to be in the mid to near 70. Overnight lows are expected to be slightly warmer in the mid to upper 40s. Tuesday and Tuesday night: The upper ridge axis will push east of the area by Tuesday morning, allowing the upper flow pattern to turn more southwesterly. Some weak wedging may still be ongoing across the northwestern cwa early Tuesday, but that will mix out quickly through the morning as the surface high moves further offshore and low-level winds turn more easterly. Moisture will be on the increase through the day, with low- levels bringing in Atlantic moisture, while aloft the pattern will bring Gulf moisture northeastward. Conditions through the day Tuesday should remain dry as ti will take time to moisten up. By Tuesday night, rain chances should increase across the western cwa, with mainly slight chance pops expected for now. Daytime highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s, while overnight lows mainly in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Deepening trough will setup into the middle of the country Wednesday. East of that trough, deep southwesterly flow aloft, and southeasterly surface flow, will continue to moisten the atmosphere Wednesday through Friday. Weak shortwave energy moving through aloft should allow for some scattered showers Wednesday. By Thursday the upper trough will be lifting northeastward towards the Mid-Atlantic, while at the surface a cold front will be approaching the region. By Thursday afternoon and into the early portions of the overnight, some thunderstorms and heavy rainfall may become possible ahead of the front. Still too far out to determine any severe potential. May see a brief period of drying Friday afternoon and night, before isolated showers once again enter the forecast for the weekend. Temperatures are expected to be mainly in the 70s through period, with lows in the 50s. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MVFR cigs through morning and early afternoon with VFR improvement later afternoon. Ceilings have lowers at most terminals with the only exception being OGB. Later on the marginal MVFR will lower as more moisture moves in from offshore as a low starts to develop off the Georgia coast. Winds remain breezy with the tight gradient over the region. Showers continue to move in but weaken significantly once they make central Midlands. Kept the tempo for lowering vsby within some heavier showers for the next few hours at AGS/DNL/OGB. MVFR ceilings will stick around into the afternoon mainly at OGB. Winds NE 5-10 kt in the afternoon, becoming light in the evening. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Another low pressure system approaches Tuesday into mid week with possible restrictions. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...99 NEAR TERM...99 SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...99 AVIATION...99