993 FXUS63 KMQT 190817 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 417 AM EDT Fri Mar 19 2021 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 415 AM EDT FRI MAR 19 2021 High pressure over the area that extends from the Rockies, over the Plains and Upper Great Lakes into central Quebec has kept conditions pretty quiet. The airmass over the region is pretty dry, and with the light winds, lows have fallen into the teens for most of the interior areas, save parts in the east and near the lakeshores that are still in the 20s. Given that there's nothing really stopping continued longwave radiation from exiting the surface, anticipating lows to keep dropping into the low teens to single digits for area's removed from the lakeshores in the interior west. By the lakeshores were the lake will continue modifying the airmass and interior east, coldest temps expected would likely be near 20F to mid-high teens. The main story today will be abundance of dry air over the region and subsequent fire weather concerns for areas that have already lost their snow cover. Synoptically, our high pressure will sink southeast over Lower Michigan and toward the upper Ohio Valley/Rust Belt region by tonight. Ridging aloft/height rises within the very dry airmass will keep the skies clear over the region. The ample sunshine and southwest flow will allow for a large temperature swing today, with the west climbing into the mid 50s. The east will stay a little cooler given moderating flow off of the cooler Lake Michigan. Additionally, the heating will increase mixing through the day, which will help reinforce the dry air at the surface during the afternoon and bring down some 10-15 mph wind gusts today. In terms of how much dry air, minimum RH values look to range from ~15% to 30% across the entire area today. Anticipating the driest spots to be in the interior west and south central, where RH values could bottom out near 15%. Other interior areas removed from the lakeshores could drop into the low 20s. Tonight, clear skies and southwesterly flow will continue over the area. Overnight lows are expecting to bottom out in the 20s inland and near 30 by the lakeshores. RH recovery tonight looks modest, generally ranging near 60-75% at their maximum. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 447 PM EDT THU MAR 18 2021 Models suggest that a split flow pattern with a progressive northern stream will prevail into early next week as ridging into the northern Great Lakes is flattened by a shortwave advancing into northern Ontario. A southern stream shrtwv and mid level low is then expected to drift northeast toward the region from the Southern Plains. Much above normal temperatures through the weekend will drop back a bit next week but still remain above seasonal averages. Saturday, the pressure gradient will begin to tighten with increasing WAA between the southern Great Lakes ridge and a trough through the western Plains. Abundant sunshine and mixing (to around 925-900 mb) will with the very dry airmass will push highs into the mid and upper 50s and drop dewpoints through the teens with min RH also down to 15 to 20 percent. The dry air combined with winds gusting in the 20-30 mph will result in heightened fire weather concerns. Sunday, as the Plains front/trough moves into MN, winds will increase further with gusts likely into the 30-35 mph range. Temps should climb to around 60 inland with low and mid 50s east. Fortunately, low level moisture will also begin to increase but may still see RH values into the 25 to 30 percent range. Some rain showers ahead of the front may approach the west late. Rain chances will increase across the area Sun night into Mon. the ECWMF remained slightly more aggressive in pushing the front through the area compared to the GFS. The GFS/GEFS was also faster lifting the mid level low toward the area into the middle of the week. Expect rain chances to increase with moderate amounts possible as PWAT values climb to around 0.75 inch. Although some snow may mix in over the west, expect predominantly rain until the low moves away toward Thu when only lighter pcpn amounts are expected. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 128 AM EDT FRI MAR 19 2021 TAFs will be VFR this period at all terminals. && .MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 415 AM EDT FRI MAR 19 2021 Light winds of 20 kts or less are expected today as a high pressure ridge passes across the lake. Winds will increase this evening in the north-central part of the lake to around 20-25 kt winds. Over the east, winds are expected to increase to 20-25kts by Saturday afternoon and increase further to 25-30 kts Saturday evening through Monday morning. Some southerly gale force gusts to 35 kts will be possible through the day Sunday and into Sunday night. Winds on the west half will remain a little lighter this weekend, generally 25 knots or lower through the weekend. Winds again look to increase to 20-25 kt from the northeast on the west half of the lake on Tuesday. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...JLB AVIATION...07 MARINE...JP