809 FXUS61 KCLE 171954 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 354 PM EDT Wed Mar 17 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure system over the mid-Mississippi Valley will move towards the mid-Atlantic through Thursday night. High pressure will build across the Great Lakes region Thursday night through Saturday, moving off to the New England coast by Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Sunny skies with mild temperatures in the low 60s are being observed right now across the area, except near the lakeshore where a lake breeze has developed, allowing cool Lake Erie temperatures to come in. Low pressure system over the mid- Mississippi Valley will move towards the mid- Atlantic through Thursday night. This will result in widespread periods of rain showers to overspread the region starting late tonight, lasting through late Thursday evening. Total QPF will range from 0.5" across northwest Pennsylvania, around 1 inch for northern Ohio and closer to 1.5" towards central Ohio. Rises on area rivers towards central Ohio along with minor flooding may be possible. Additionally the other hazard present will be strong winds. Northeast wills develop and strengthen tonight through Thursday night. Strongest winds will be likely Thursday afternoon/evening when wind gusts as high as 50 mph will be possible along and west of I-71 as well as the entire lakeshore area. For this reason, a Wind Advisory has been issued across this area. Rain and wind slowly diminish Thursday night. Temperatures rapidly cool Thursday night down to lows in the mid to upper 20s. It's possibly some light snow mixes in as precipitation winds down. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A large area of high pressure will build east across the Great Lakes Friday and Friday night, becoming centered over New England Saturday night. This will provide dry conditions and clear skies across the area. A cooler day is expected Friday with highs only in the mid 30s to mid 40s across the area. Lows Friday night will drop into the low to mid 20s across the area. A warming trend will commence Saturday with highs expected to reach the upper 40s along the lake to the low to mid 50s inland. Lows Sunday night will drop into the mid 20s to low 30s across the area. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Ridging centered over the east coast will allow for warm air advection into the area late this weekend through early next week. Highs on Sunday will be in the mid 50s to low 60s across the area, warming to the low to mid 60s for the area by Wednesday. Slow moving, vertically stacked low pressure will move from the southern Plains Tuesday to the Great Lakes Wednesday, which will be the next chance for precip across the area. Right now, only have slight/low chance pops Tuesday night/Wednesday given the range of model solutions at this point. && .AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/... Clear skies are observed across the area this afternoon and is expected to continue through the daytime hours today. Low pressure currently over Oklahoma will work its way east- northeast across the mid-Mississippi Valley today and tonight. As that low approaches the area, rain showers and cloud cover will overspread the region from the southwest late tonight into Thursday morning. A lowering in ceilings and visibilities is expected through the morning hours to IFR conditions at all TAF sites through to the end of the TAF period. Additionally, as that low approaches from the southwest, northeast winds increase tonight and especially during the daytime hours on Thursday. Max wind gusts are likely to occur Thursday afternoon/evening with wind gusts up to 40 knots possible, mainly at sites such as KTOL, KFDY, KMFD, KCLE, and KERI. Outlook...Non-VFR conditions are likely with widespread periods of rain through Thursday night. Strong northeast winds may product wind gusts of up to 40 knots through Thursday evening. && .MARINE... Have opted to upgrade the Gale Watch to a Gale Warning across the lake, with northeast winds steadily increasing tonight through Thursday as low pressure move east through the Ohio valley. Most confident in gales near and east of The Islands, but included the western basin as well although gales will likely be more brief and low end here. With the stronger northeast winds, have opted for a Lakeshore Flood Warning across the western basin, with a favorable persistent fetch supporting water level increase to at least 72 inches above low water datum. The winds will subside across the lake beginning early Friday morning continuing into Saturday, but will maintain an easterly component during this time frame. As high pressure slides southeast across the Great Lakes, winds will become more southerly late weekend into early next week. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Wind Advisory from noon Thursday to 4 AM EDT Friday for OHZ010>012-019-027>030-036-037-047-089. Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 11 PM EDT Thursday for OHZ003- 006>009-017-018. Lakeshore Flood Warning from 10 AM Thursday to 4 AM EDT Friday for OHZ003-007. PA...Wind Advisory from noon Thursday to 4 AM EDT Friday for PAZ001. MARINE...Gale Warning from 10 AM Thursday to 4 AM EDT Friday for LEZ142>149-162>169. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Saunders NEAR TERM...Saunders SHORT TERM...Greenawalt LONG TERM...Greenawalt AVIATION...Saunders MARINE...Greenawalt