809 FXUS65 KFGZ 141613 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 913 AM MST Sun Mar 14 2021 .SYNOPSIS...Snow showers will diminish this morning for all but northeastern Arizona where the chance for showers will continue today. Expect breezy west winds, especially from Winslow eastward. Another windy day is in store Monday ahead of a quick moving cold front. This system will bring another round of showers with accumulating snow across much of the high country Monday night into Tuesday morning. Much warmer weather returns Wednesday. && .UPDATE...Snow showers continue this morning across the northeastern corner of Arizona, particularly the Defiance Plateau, Chinle Valley, and Chuska Mountains. We have updated the forecast to increase precipitation chances in this area through the morning hours. Fog has also develop in the Verde Valley but is expected to dissipate quickly with daytime heating and increasing westerly winds. The remainder of the forecast remains on track this morning. && .PREV DISCUSSION /350 AM MST/...Some light snow showers are persisting this morning across portions of northern Arizona. This is in response to low level moisture and enhanced west- northwesterly upslope flow on the backside of the low pressure system that moved through the area yesterday. The low will continue to move east today leaving a strong west to northwesterly flow over Arizona. Expect these light showers to diminish later this morning. Parts of eastern Arizona in Apache county will continue to see shower activity today, especially the northeastern corner of the state where the Chuska mountains are likely to see an additional couple inches of snowfall this morning. Tight pressure gradients from the departing low will bring a windy day to the area. Westerly winds will be strongest along the I-40 corridor from about Winslow to the New Mexico border where Wind Advisories remain in effect for gusts up to 45 mph. A fast moving shortwave is quick to move into the southwest on Monday and across Arizona Monday night and Tuesday. Southwest winds will be on the increase Monday afternoon as the system approaches with another windy day in store. Gusts to 40 mph are likely mainly along and west of the Mogollon Rim. This system pushes a strong cold front across the area Monday night with another round of accumulating snow forecast in the high country. Most accumulation will be above 5,000 ft where 1 to 4 inches is likely. This system is colder and will briefly see snow levels dipping down to near and below 3,000 ft early Tuesday morning when some of the lower valleys, including the Verde Valley, could see some light accumulation of less than an inch. A period of moderate to heavy snow and areas of blowing snow will accompany the front and cause poor winter driving conditions Monday night through early Tuesday morning. The shortwave moves into New Mexico on Tuesday while showers taper off from west to east across Arizona. A cool and breezy day will follow. High pressure will build over the region Wednesday through the end of the work week bringing much warmer temperatures. More unsettled weather is looking likely next weekend as another long wave trough pattern looks to set up across the western U.S. Stay tuned for more details in the coming week. && .AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Snow showers generally confined to areas east of a K0V7-KSOW line today will end by about 00Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions across the region through the TAF period. Gusty west winds at 15-25 kts with gusts 25-40 kts will diminish after 02Z. The stronger winds will be along and east of higher terrain. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Gusty westerly winds today with a slight chance for snow showers over the mountains of Apache County. Winds will shift to the southwest and remain gusty Monday in advance of a fast moving cold front. Showers will move through the area west to east Monday night. Tuesday through Thursday...Rain and snow showers will exit the area early Tuesday with below average daytime temperatures. Dry weather and a significant warming trend begins Wednesday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Wind Advisory until 7 PM MST this evening FOR AZZ013-014-017. && $$ PUBLIC...MCT AVIATION...DB FIRE WEATHER...DB For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff