947 FXUS63 KPAH 131249 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 649 AM CST Sat Mar 13 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 648 AM CST Sat Mar 13 2021 Cancelled more of the Flood Watch. Only SEMO counties remain at this point. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night) Issued at 230 AM CST Sat Mar 13 2021 Ended the Flood Watch for more of southern IL and parts of west KY as the focus should be along a region of best H8 moist transport from SEMO into southwest KY through mid morning. Through the day s/wv mid level ridging will strengthen across the region and serve to diminish precipitation chances, with the focus turning to areas to our west ahead of a large upper low that will centered over east CO by 18z Sunday. So much of this evening should be void of significant precipitation, with low chances after midnight into Sunday. By Sunday afternoon, areas east of the MS River should be mainly dry, with rain shower chances pushing back into SEMO. We expect a band of showers and even a few thunderstorms to move across the area Sunday night as energy rotates around the approaching mid level low, ejecting a s/wv across the area. The chance of precipitation will decrease from SW to NE Monday into Monday night in the wake of the aforementioned s/wv. Monday will be warmer as well. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 230 AM CST Sat Mar 13 2021 The main forecast concern is with our next chance of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms from late Tuesday night into Thursday. Forecast confidence in the broad synoptic pattern evolution is relatively good, but confidence in the finer details is lower. The overall upper level pattern across the continental U.S. will start with an upper low and troughing over the western U.S. with a relatively flat ridge in the east. This pattern is forecast to transition to one with more amplified ridging in the west and a trough in the east by next weekend. In the interim, a nearly vertically stacked low pressure center over the Four Corners region of the southwestern U.S. on Tuesday is forecast to move east into the Mississippi Valley by Thursday. The approach and passage of this low will give the region our next chance for rain. Ensemble member cluster analysis reveals considerable spread among ensemble members with regard to timing and track of the low. However, a majority of the ECMWF/CMC members tend to favor a slower track and keep the low better defined for a longer period of time. Meanwhile, a majority of the GFS members tend to favor a faster solution and open the low as it pushes east of the immediate region. We tend to favor the ECMWF/CMC camp, and that is represented fairly well in the initialized model blend. Will keep rain probabilities in the chance category for now given the timing uncertainties. Also added a mention of thunder across all or part of the area from late Tuesday night into Wednesday evening with adequate instability of at least an elevated nature forecast by the ECMWF, GFS, and CMC. On either side of the Wednesday/Thursday system, dry weather is expected on Tuesday and then again by Friday. That transition from southwesterly flow mid week to northwesterly flow by the end of the week is reflected in our temperature forecast as well. Highs are forecast reach the 60s both Tuesday and Wednesday, then trend lower into the 50s for Thursday and Friday. Similarly, lows are forecast to trend from the 40s mid week back into the 30s by late week. && .AVIATION... Issued at 512 AM CST Sat Mar 13 2021 MVFR conditions across southeast MO into far west KY will continue this morning with local IFR along the TN/AR borders. BKN-OVC skies but VFR elsewhere. Overall improving conditions are anticipated as showers decrease in coverage later this morning and afternoon from southeast MO into west KY. ENE winds 5 to 10 kts on average will continue. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...Flood Watch until 6 PM CST this evening for MOZ076-086-087-100- 107>111. IN...None. KY...None. && $$