511 FXUS62 KCHS 121503 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1003 AM EST Fri Mar 12 2021 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain across the region today. A weak backdoor cold front will drop into the area Saturday morning and likely linger in the vicinity through the weekend. A series of storm systems will bring unsettled weather to the region next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Today: No major changes with the latest update. Expect another unseasonably warm day under high pressure with mainly just a few mid/high clouds. Thicknesses supportive of highs near 80 inland. A developing sea breeze this afternoon will keep immediate coastal temps significantly cooler in the mid to upper 60s. Tonight: High pressure will prevail but a weak backdoor cold front should push into SC late, although it will remain too dry for any rainfall. Lows will generally be in the lower to mid 50s inland and mid to upper 50s closer to the coast. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A backdoor cold front will sink south into the forecast area on Saturday, likely stalling in the vicinity through Sunday. A mid level ridge extending north from the Gulf of Mexico will help keep precipitation potential limited with the best forcing displaced to the north. PoPs remain insignificant (less than 15%). It will continue to be unseasonably warm, with highs peaking in the mid 70s to around 80 away from the beaches. Lows will drop to the 50s. High pressure will build down across the Carolinas Sunday night into Monday. There are hints that a warm front could lift into the area late in the day, though there are still some differences in model solutions. Increasing isentropic ascent will bring a risk for showers, but coverage should stay fairly isolated. Much cooler temperatures than previous days are expected. Highs are forecast to range from the low/mid 60s across the northern zones to the mid 70s near the Altamaha. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... There remains notable discrepancies in model solutions in the long term period. A warm front will likely lift into the area Tuesday, although strength of inland high pressure wedge remains in question. A stronger storm system will move out of the Southern Plains on Wednesday, arriving in the eastern CONUS on Thursday. This pattern favors rain chances in the forecast each day, although refinements will be needed as trends become clearer. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... KCHS/KSAV: High pressure will prevail resulting in high confidence in VFR through 12Z/13. Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions possible early next week in low clouds and showers. && .MARINE... Weak flow expected through tonight as surface high pressure remains over the waters. Mid-late afternoon winds in Charleston Harbor could briefly gust near 15 kt with the sea breeze. A brief uptick in winds is expected on Saturday following the passage of a backdoor cold front, especially across the northern waters, though no Small Craft Advisories are expected at this time. The pressure gradient tightens again early next week as high pressure builds across the Carolinas. Winds and seas could support Advisories across portions of the waters. Another storm system will approach towards mid week. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJB SHORT TERM...ETM LONG TERM...ETM AVIATION...ETM/RJB MARINE...ETM/RJB