721 FXUS61 KBGM 120906 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 406 AM EST Fri Mar 12 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Mild weather is expected once again, with plenty of sunshine before a few rain showers move in north of the Thruway. Blustery northwest winds bring in chilly temperatures tonight, then a sunny but cooler day is expected for Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 400 AM Update... The cold front is quickly moving southeast out of the area tonight, with lingering rain showers rapidly coming to an end across the Poconos. While midlevel clouds linger across northeast PA and much of our central NY zones east of the Finger Lakes and south of the Thruway, skies are quickly clearing. This has allowed temperatures across the Finger Lakes, Thruway corridor and southern Tug Hill to fall back into the 40s. Temperatures there should continue to fall back into the upper 30s, while areas to the southeast bottom out in the low to mid 40s courtesy of lingering cloud cover. Dry and sunny weather is expected for much of the area today with temperatures quickly rebounding into the lower to mid 50s. The Wyoming valley may even be able to reach into the lower 60s this afternoon. However, another upper low, already visible on water vapor imagery across western Ontario province, will graze the area later today into tonight. Winds will be turning breezy this afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens in advance of this approaching feature, with gusts to 20 to 35 mph during the afternoon. The strongest gusts would be across the higher terrain. This will also touch off a chance for some isolated rain showers into the evening mainly north of the Thruway, but any rain showers should quickly change over to snow as much colder temperatures spill in behind the passing wave. Winds turn even stronger for several hours overnight due to strong cold air advection (850 mb temperatures will be as low as -15 C by midnight Saturday). Combined with a fairly well mixed sounding through around 850 mb and a strong 40 to 50kt low level jet, strong gusts around 30 to 40 kts are looking most likely. However, stronger gusts are not out of the question, especially over the higher elevations of the Catskills and Poconos. This may bring us closer to advisory criteria. However, as of right now, gusts are marginal, and with trees still bare, impacts are also questionable. Thus, will hold off for now and merely highlight the risk in our HWO. Otherwise, expect temperatures tonight to quickly fall back into the 20s and even teens in the higher terrain of the Catskills and southern Tug Hill. Skies turn sunny once more into Saturday, and west/northwest winds will be comparatively lighter at around 5 to 10 mph. However, this will not be of much help to us in terms of a warm up with such a chilly airmass in place. Highs top out in the mid and upper 30s across most of the area, and in the lower 40s in the river valleys of the Southern Tier and northeast PA. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... 345 AM Update... The short term period will be dominated by a reinforcement of cold air via northwest winds ahead of Canadian high pressure settling over the region Monday. A weakening far northern clipper system is projected to slip from the southern shore of Hudson Bay late Saturday to Maine on Sunday. Some high clouds may occur in our region later Saturday night, especially north, associated with isentropic lift well ahead of that wave. This will prevent temperatures from dropping much; mainly 20s to around 30s for lows. Then on Sunday, the trailing cold front of the system will sink through the region. Highs of mid 30s-mid 40s occur midday-early afternoon before temperatures start to dive more. The energy of the mid March sun combined with cold air advection will greatly steepen low level lapse rates to provide for good mixing down of northwesterly winds in the afternoon with gusts frequently 25-35 mph. Also, though moisture will limited, the instability could realize some instability snow showers in Central New York, especially southeast of Lake Ontario where there will be at least a little help from the lake. We dry out and clear out Sunday night, with the renewed surge of Arctic air sending temperatures into the teens to near 20 for lows. Some of our typically colder spots such as northern Oneida County will probably find single digits. Initial north-northwest wind Monday will go light later in the day, as the Canadian high finally arrives with plenty of sunshine and highs of upper 20s to upper 30s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... 345 AM Update... Flow will be roughly zonal through the middle of next week, with temperatures only edging up slightly to right around climatology. Low pressure will lift out of the Midwest and weaken while running into our dry air mass. Aloft, the associated cutoff low will open into a rapidly flattening trough. The end result is a small chance of snow mixed with rain in daytime late Monday night through Tuesday night. At this point the GFS has measurable precipitation with better moisture, but ECMWF-Canadian models are more doubtful on that by allowing the prior high pressure to have a bigger impact by drying up the system before it even reaches us. Thus not only does any precipitation appear to be fairly light, but also there is some uncertainty as to it will even occur at all with this first disturbance. A more significant system will take shape later in the week, as an upper low ejects out the Rockies and potentially has some phasing with a northern stream trough, eventually. However, there remains considerable uncertainty for if we get within its footprint. Overall prospects for areawide precipitation appear a bit higher Thursday-Friday compared to the weakening wave earlier in the week, but we will have to sort this out in coming days. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 1230 AM Update... A few showers are moving through the region tonight with a cold front, but no restrictions are expected with these. Ceilings are coming in at around 3500 to 5000 ft across most terminals, but KAVP has been able to drop back to around 2500 ft. However, over the next couple of hours, ceilings lift and skies start to clear behind the front. Clear to partly cloudy skies will continue through Friday. VFR conditions continue into Friday night at most terminals, but ceilings will lower slightly at KSYR and KRME as another passing disturbance brings in a chance for some light snow showers. Cannot rule out brief drops to MVFR with this before skies quickly start to clear again into Saturday morning. Low level wind shear impacts wrap up over the next couple of hours. Southwest surface winds at 10 to 15 with some higher gusts continue ahead and along the front for the next couple of hours, then winds shift to the west and northwest at 8 to 10 kts. Around 16z winds increase to 15 kts with gusts to around 25 kts. Outlook... Friday night...VFR except chance for snow showers/restrictions Friday night, mainly KSYR-KRME. Saturday...Mainly VFR Saturday night through Sunday...VFR except chance for snow showers/restrictions Sunday, mainly KSYR-KRME. Sunday night through Monday night...Mainly VFR Tuesday...Chance for widespread snow and rain showers and associated restrictions at all terminals. && .HYDROLOGY... 255 PM Thursday Update... Above normal temperatures and breezy conditions will continue over the next few days, leading to continued snowmelt. Rivers and streams are expected to stay within their banks, with the Tioughnioga likely coming the closest. However, observations suggest the snow cover has been a little stubborn to melt above Cortland, which may limit the runoff slightly. We will continue to monitor trends but overall things still favor a healthy, gradual release of water from the snowpack. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HLC NEAR TERM...HLC SHORT TERM...MDP LONG TERM...MDP AVIATION...TAC HYDROLOGY...