897 FXUS64 KSJT 102347 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 547 PM CST Wed Mar 10 2021 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 220 PM CST Wed Mar 10 2021 Low clouds and cooler temperatures have again affected areas south of Interstate 20 this afternoon. Along and north of a Sterling City to Clyde line, temperatures were in the 70s to lower 80s where lots of sunshine exists. To the south, temperatures were mainly in the upper 60s. Expect a few more degrees of warming to occur, but temperatures will likely struggle to reach the mid 70s in these southern areas. For tonight, expect very similar conditions to last night, with southerly flow continuing, resulting in warm overnight lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s, and another round of low clouds developing across the area from late tonight into Thursday morning. For Thursday, models are optimistic about low clouds clearing earlier in the day, so will continue to show a warming trend for tomorrow's high temperatures. Winds will be breezy in the morning, but are expected to be somewhat lighter overall. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 221 PM CST Wed Mar 10 2021 Mild and breezy conditions will continue across the area on Friday. We'll likely see another round of low stratus in the morning scattering out in the afternoon. Expect highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s, with overnight lows remaining above normal. Our next low pressure system set to impact the region is currently spinning off the northern California coast. This low is forecast to move into the southern Rockies over the weekend and into the Plains on Sunday. Shower and thunderstorm chances enter the forecast Friday night and continue into Sunday morning. There is still model disagreement regarding timing of the upper low and the associated Pacific front sweeping across the region. The GFS and NAM bring the front through Saturday afternoon/evening while the ECMWF continues to lag behind by about 12 hours. The models continue to develop showers and storms along the front, with the ECMWF being more robust with QPF amounts especially across our western counties. Given the model uncertainty, will continue to hold PoPs in the chance category Saturday morning/afternoon, increasing in the evening especially across our eastern counties. Given the amount of wind shear with this system, strong to severe thunderstorms remain a possibility. Dry and windy conditions are expected on Sunday in the wake of the front. Expect highs on Sunday and Monday generally in the 60s and 70s, with overnight lows in the 40s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 541 PM CST Wed Mar 10 2021 Expect mainly VFR conditions this evening. Stratus will spread back north across much of the area late tonight, with MVFR ceilings at the southern terminals between 07-09Z and the KSJT site at 11Z. The ceilings will lower to IFR at the KSOA site by 11Z. The MVFR ceilings will remain for most of the day on Wednesday. Keeping VFR going for the KABI site for now. The winds will be from at south and gusty at times. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 61 81 61 80 / 5 0 10 10 San Angelo 59 77 61 82 / 0 0 5 5 Junction 58 81 61 82 / 0 0 0 5 Brownwood 60 82 60 81 / 5 5 5 5 Sweetwater 60 80 61 80 / 5 0 20 10 Ozona 58 75 60 79 / 5 0 5 5 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...21