296 
FXUS65 KFGZ 100327
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
827 PM MST Tue Mar 9 2021

.SYNOPSIS...On Wednesday, an approaching low will bring 
noticeably cooler temperatures, along with increasing chances for 
rain and snow across western Arizona during the afternoon/evening 
timeframe. Cold and wet weather will continue through the 
remainder of the week, with the potential for at least light snow 
accumulations each day through Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...Updated the forecast to allow the wind advisory to
expire. Breezy conditions will continue overnight, and should
prevent overnight lows from cooling off too much. As a result,
bumped up overnight lows by a few degrees. Otherwise, the
remaining forecast is on track with no major updates required.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /245 PM MST/...Strong winds are being observed
across northern Arizona this afternoon, with gusts into 35-45 mph
range across much of the area. Winds will decrease overnight, but
narrow bands of strong downslope winds will likely continue to the
northeast of higher terrain, including Doney Park east of
Flagstaff and the Eager/Springerville area near the White
Mountains. In addition, some snow pellets, or patchy fog, are
possible overnight along portions of the Mogollon Rim induced my
upslope wind flow. If this occurs it would be localized, possible
impacting portions of Interstate 17 north of Munds Park.

Chances for light rain and snow will increase across western
Arizona beginning Wednesday afternoon/evening as a closed low
drops southward along the California Coast. Snow accumulations
are expected to be light, with an inch or two possible above 5000
feet or so. Cold air associated with this approaching low will
cause a noticeable drop in temperatures, with daytime highs
between 5 to 10 degrees below normal.

This slow moving low is forecast to cross the state from Thursday
through Saturday bringing chances for at least a couple of inches
of snow accumulations each day. Challenging winter weather
driving conditions will be possible at times. Snow levels are
uncertain, and will be variable from day to day. Generally
speaking, snow levels are forecast to vary from 3000-5000 feet
during this period. Be sure to check the forecast for you specific
location, and continue to monitor the forecast for updates.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Generally VFR conditions will 
prevail through the TAF period. Areas of low clouds will continue 
to form along the SW edge of the Mogollon Rim overnight, and along
a line from KPAN-KFLG-KGCN. Some MVFR due to lowering CIGS, light
drizzle or snow pellets, will be possible in this areas through 
15Z Wed. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Areas of low clouds. patchy fog and isolated 
drizzle or snow pellet showers are possible tonight along southwest 
facing slopes of higher terrain. Gusty southwest winds continue and 
further cooling develops Wednesday, with a chance for rain and snow 
showers over the western and central zones later in the day. Cool 
and showery weather is expected for Thursday, with southwest winds 
from 10 to 20 mph.

Friday through Sunday...A chance of rain and snow will be present 
Friday and Saturday, along with seasonably cool temperatures. Drying 
and warming weather arrives for Sunday. Generally light southwest 
winds Friday become westerly and northerly Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...TM/RR
AVIATION...TM
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff