342 
FXUS65 KLKN 090926
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
126 AM PST Tue Mar 9 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Chances for snow in mainly White Pine County today
will become more widespread on Wednesday and Thursday as a system
moves through the region. Cooler temperatures are expected along
with lighter winds. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday afternoon

Upper low dropping south down off of the western U.S. coast will 
be the main weather feature throughout the short term period, 
bringing periods of snow showers to our region. The better 
chances for snow accumulation will be in central Nevada, though 
northern Nevada will have chances for snow showers at times as 
well. Today the Low will be off of the Oregon coast, approaching 
the northern California coast. Mainly cloudy skies are expected 
as the Low nears. Some moisture is expected to get transported 
into mainly White Pine County during the afternoon, bringing snow 
showers into the evening and possibly spreading into southern Elko
County and northeastern Nye County. The mountains in White Pine 
County would be the main benefactor, though valleys including Ely 
could also see light accumulations. Cooler temperatures are 
expected today behind yesterday's cold front, with highs mainly in
the mid 30's to the mid 40's.

On Wednesday through Thursday, the Low will make its way inland
and will very slowly dig east southeast. The exact placement of 
the Low will determine how far north into northern Nevada the 
showers will reach, which is always a little hard to determine 
with a cut-off low. Over the 48 hour period, an inch or two of 
snow could fall as far north as I-80, with 2-3 inches in central 
Nevada, possibly higher in White Pine County. Mountains of course 
are expecting higher amounts. High temperatures wont change much 
on Wednesday and Thursday, remaining in the 30's and 40's. Lows 
will be mainly in the 20's, with some teens possible at times in 
colder valleys. No wind issues expected with the system with 
tighter gradients remaining well to the south and west. Models are
indicating some minimal instability in central Nevada on both 
Wednesday and Thursday afternoons, though extensive cloud cover 
would likely inhibit convection. Lightning mappers and the NBM 
support the absence of convection, with very low TS prob values 
indicated. 

.LONG TERM...Thursday night through next Tuesday.

NBM has exiting system Thursday lingering into Friday afternoon, 
but really only in northeast Nye and eastern White Pine County. 
Friday night through Sunday morning are quiet precip-wise. Sunday 
late morning/afternoon begins a 24 hour period of light snow 
showers over the mountains of north-central and northern Nevada. 
Light amounts, with heaviest over such ranges as the Santa Rosas,
Ruby/East Humboldt, Independence, and Jarbidge but only a few 
inches there even. Quiet precip after that. Winds remain below 
advisory levels but get gusty at times. High temps around normals 
with a slight warm up next Saturday and Sunday. Lows around 
normal. 

&&

.AVIATION...Generally clouds will decrease across northern NV 
with only mid-level ceilings over most TAF sites. The only 
exception will be KTPH which will only see mostly high level 
ceilings through the forecast period. KELY still has the better 
chance of precipitation and MVFR Cigs as the front stalls and 
wraps back around east central NV. There is a slight chance that 
some snow showers could bring brief periods of IFR conditions to 
KELY during the afternoon.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

90/98/97