667 FXUS62 KTAE 090528 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1228 AM EST Tue Mar 9 2021 .AVIATION... [Through 06z Wednesday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period with light winds. && .PREV DISCUSSION [851 PM EST]... .NEAR TERM [Through Tuesday]... A very dry air mass is in place, with Precipitable Water values not far off record dry levels for this day of the year. The dry air mass and light winds will set up ideal conditions for radiational cooling tonight, with fairly large temperature differences between low-lying cold pockets and the warmer bubbles. Have included patchy frost in the forecast late tonight east of the Flint River and north of I- 10, where lows below 38F and sufficiently high relative humidity will intersect. Otherwise, skies will feature nothing more than the arrival of some high cirrus early Tuesday. Low-level flow will veer around from northeast today to east/southeast by Tuesday. This will contribute to a gradual warming trend, and initial return of shallow Atlantic moisture is expected. Dewpoints will climb through the 30s and into the 40s on Tuesday, particularly east of I-75 and along the Panhandle coast. However, little more than flat fair-weather cumulus will emerge. .SHORT TERM [Tuesday Night Through Wednesday Night]... Deep layer ridge along the eastern seaboard will dominate the pattern through the middle of the week. Sprawling surface high, centered off the Mid-Atlantic, will keep steady east to east- southeast flow in place. Expect temperatures to gradually warm, with highs in the 70s on Wednesday, and lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s. No rain is expected. .LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]... The pattern will remain mostly unchanged into the weekend, with high pressure in control over most of the southeast. Expect mild and dry conditions to persist through at least Saturday. A strong system ejecting out of the desert southwest will push a front towards the northeastern Gulf Coast late in the weekend. This may provide the region with it's next chance of rain by late Sunday or Monday. .MARINE... Overall easterly flow is expected to persist over the coastal waters through most of the week. This will result in a diurnal wind pattern, with exercise caution conditions expected during the overnight and early morning hours, and lighter winds conditions during the day. .FIRE WEATHER... A very dry air mass is in place this afternoon. A clocking of light winds out of the east and southeast on Tuesday will bring enough moisture back across the FL zones to hold Min RH on Tuesday above 30 percent, but counties north of Dothan, Blakely, and Tifton are likely to again see Min RH down into the 20s on Tuesday. Otherwise, light to moderate breezes will turn more easterly and southeasterly. Smoke rise will continue to be strongly capped around 3500-4000 feet agl by a pronounced subsidence inversion. .HYDROLOGY... While several area rivers remain in minor flood, no additional rainfall is expected through the remainder of the work week. Therefore, most river levels should generally be on the decline through the week. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 73 45 74 51 76 / 0 0 0 0 0 Panama City 70 51 72 55 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dothan 71 46 74 49 76 / 0 0 0 0 0 Albany 71 43 74 49 76 / 0 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 73 44 75 49 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 Cross City 74 46 76 50 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 67 52 69 56 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Haner SHORT TERM...Camp LONG TERM...Camp AVIATION...DVD MARINE...Camp FIRE WEATHER...Haner HYDROLOGY...Camp