987 FXUS62 KCHS 080349 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1049 PM EST Sun Mar 7 2021 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will settle in across the area through Monday, then move off the coast by the middle of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... As of 1045 PM: Latest round of observations indicated that temperatures have cooled into the mid 30s across most inland areas. These temperatures are in line with the current forecast. No change needed for the forecast or headlines. As of 820 PM: The forecast is generally on track. I will make minor updates to the hourly temp and dewpoints to align with recent observation trends. As of 610 PM: Latest observations indicate temperatures across the forecast area ranged in the low to mid 50s with dewpoint depressions around 35 degrees. In addition, winds have decreased across the forecast area over the past hour. The combination of a clear sky and very dry BL conditions should result in rapidly cooling temperatures this evening. I will adjust hourly temperatures and dewpoints to align with latest observations. Previous Discussion: The rest of the afternoon will be sunny with gusty northerly winds as high pressure builds into the region and low pressure shifts further east across the Atlantic. Winds are expected to subside after sunset and skies will remain cloud free, setting up for an exceptional radiational cooling night. Temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 20s to low 30s across inland areas so a Freeze Warning has been issued. As RH's increase overnight, scattered to widespread frost is also expected to form. Therefore, have issued a Frost Advisory for Beaufort, Coastal Colleton and Jasper counties, as well as Inland McIntosh county. The Freeze Warning and Frost Advisory could need to be expanded if temperatures become more conducive. Temperatures along the coast will be in the mid to upper 30s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Monday through Wednesday: Very tranquil weather will prevail across the forecast area in the early to mid week time period. High pressure will settle in Monday and Tuesday then slip off the coast through Wednesday. Clear skies on Monday will give way to passing cirrus on Tuesday which should thin through Wednesday. Temperatures will start off with highs in the low to mid 60s on Monday, around 5 degrees below normal. Low level thicknesses steadily rise Tuesday and Wednesday, culminating in highs in the low 70s away from the immediate coast Wednesday afternoon. We will see excellent radiational cooling conditions Monday night and lows are forecast in the low to mid 30s with scattered frost. Another round of Freeze Watches/Warnings and Frost Advisories will very likely be needed. Tuesday night lows should be several degrees warmer and it doesn't look like there will be any frost/freeze issues at this time. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Models remain in excellent agreement for the long term forecast. They keep high pressure off the coast, with it's periphery stretching into the Southeast U.S. Expect dry conditions with above normal temperatures. && .AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions forecast through the 0Z TAF period. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR. && .MARINE... Today and tonight: High pressure will prevail across the area and the pressure gradient will continue to relax. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 1 AM for the outer Georgia waters for wind gusts up to 25 knots and seas 4-6 feet. Thereafter, winds will subside to 15-20 knots and seas 4-5 feet. Elsewhere, winds will be N at 10-15 knots and seas 2-4 feet. Monday through Friday: High pressure will settle in across the local waters Monday through Tuesday, then move well offshore through late in the week. Winds on Monday morning will be out of the northeast in the 10-15 knot range, up to 15-20 knots in the outer Georgia waters. Speeds will then quickly decrease Monday afternoon and evening. Through the rest of the week, winds and seas will remain well below Small Craft Advisory thresholds. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM EST Monday for GAZ087-088- 099>101-114>116-118-137-138. Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EST Monday for GAZ140. SC...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM EST Monday for SCZ040-042>045- 047-050-052. Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EST Monday for SCZ048-049-051. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for AMZ374. && $$ NEAR TERM...NED SHORT TERM...BSH LONG TERM... AVIATION...NED MARINE...BSH