645 FXUS62 KTAE 072320 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 620 PM EST Sun Mar 7 2021 .AVIATION... [Through 00Z Tuesday] VFR conditions at all TAF sites will continue through the TAF period. && .PREV DISCUSSION [314 PM EST]... .NEAR TERM [Through Monday]... Surface high pressure will continue to move over the region, which will lead to a few more cold nights in the mid to upper 30s from efficient radiative cooling processes. Luckily the dewpoints across the region will be cool enough that frost should not develop tonight across the region; however with certain micro climates, patchy frost may be possible across our northern Georgia counties . With high pressure overhead, rather fair weather is expected on Monday with high temperatures warmer than Sunday, with highs climbing into the mid to upper 60s for much of the region. .SHORT TERM [Monday Night Through Tuesday Night]... Easterly flow returns for the short term as surface high pressure over the SE CONUS continues to slowly slide eastward. Dry conditions are expected with upper level ridging beginning to nudge over the region from the southwest. A gradual warming and moistening trend is expected, with high temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s on Tuesday increasing to the low to mid 70s on Wednesday. .LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]... The warming and moistening trend will continue through the long term period with east to southeast winds and upper level ridging mostly remaining overhead. A low pressure system is forecast to move into the central Plains around midweek, but lack of upper level support should keep it from making much eastward progress through the week. No rainfall is expected through the period, although the gradual increase in moisture will likely lead to a slow increase in cloud cover each afternoon. High temperatures will gradually warm to near 80 heading into the weekend, with low temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 50s. Late in the weekend into early next week, the aforementioned system over the Plains gets picked up by a trough and begins to slide eastward towards the area. While there is still a lot of uncertainty with the timing of this system, rain chances will likely start to increase heading into early next week. .MARINE... Winds and seas will remain elevated through much of the week which will make for rough boating conditions, especially in offshore waters. Northerly flow will become easterly through the rest of the weekend and elevated easterly flow around 15 knots expected through much of the upcoming week along with 2 to 4 foot seas. No rain is expected. Small craft should still exercise caution as winds and seas will remain elevated for the next couple of days. .FIRE WEATHER... RH values will continue to remain low on Monday with mid 20s RH values being observed across a wide portion of the forecast area during the afternoon hours. Given that 20ft winds will remain northeasterly, but less than 6 mph across the entire region, there are no fire weather concerns. Mixing heights will generally climb to around 4000ft tomorrow afternoon. Lows dispersions are also expected across SE Alabama and SW Georgia; however, increase as you move into the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend regions. .HYDROLOGY... While several area rivers remain in minor flood, no new rainfall is expected through the forecast period. The Apalachicola River at Blountstown will continue to fall through the week. Points along the Suwanee River have also crest and will continue to fall. The Withlacoochee River at Valdosta is forecast to fall out of minor flood tomorrow. The Withlacoochee River near Quitman is forecast to crest in minor flood late Monday into Tuesday. The Ochlockonee River at Concord is currently cresting and should fall out of minor flood tomorrow. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 39 68 39 72 46 / 0 0 0 0 0 Panama City 44 68 45 69 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dothan 37 66 38 69 44 / 0 0 0 0 0 Albany 35 65 36 68 43 / 0 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 36 66 36 71 43 / 0 0 0 0 0 Cross City 37 68 40 73 46 / 0 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 46 64 47 67 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Bunker SHORT TERM...Merrifield LONG TERM...Merrifield AVIATION...Montgomery MARINE...Merrifield FIRE WEATHER...Bunker HYDROLOGY...Merrifield