591 FXUS62 KTAE 071106 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 606 AM EST Sun Mar 7 2021 .AVIATION... [Through 12Z Monday] VFR conditions will prevail with sunny/clear skies. Light northeasterly winds will continue. && .PREV DISCUSSION [323 AM EST]... .NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... In the upper levels, a trough will be over the region today and a ridge will build into the region tonight. At the surface, high pressure will be over the region with northeasterly low level flow and a cool, dry air mass in place. POPs will be near zero. Skies will be sunny/clear. Highs will be in the 60s. Lows will be in the 30s. .SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]... The beginning of the week will see a warming trend across the area as an upper level trough pushes east of the region and mid-level ridging begins to develop. Surface high pressure is also anticipated to settle in across the area so expect cool nights as skies are expected to be mostly clear through the period. High temperatures will range in the upper 60s to low 70s with night time lows dropping into the low 40s and upper 30s on Monday night, and then into the low to mid 40s Tuesday night. .LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]... The benign weather pattern is expected to continue through the remainder of the week as mid-level ridging strengthens across the southeastern US. At the surface, high pressure will begin to move east off the US coast with elevated easterly and southeasterly flow expected to develop and persist through the weekend. The warming trend that started at the beginning of the week will continue with temperatures climbing into the low 80s by Friday/Saturday. It'll definitely feel like spring this week across the tri-state region. .MARINE... Winds and seas will remain elevated through much of the week which will make for rough boating conditions, especially in offshore waters. Northerly flow will become east through the rest of the weekend and elevated easterly flow around 15 knots expected through much of the upcoming week along with 2 to 4 seas. No rain is expected. .FIRE WEATHER... A very dry air mass is in place today and tomorrow with minimum RH values in the 20s. Northeasterly winds will be light around 10 mph or less. High dispersions above 75 are expected today in SW Georgia and the Florida Big Bend. Outside of low RH values and high dispersions, there are no fire weather concerns over the next couple of days. .HYDROLOGY... While several area rivers remain in minor flood, no new rainfall is expected through the forecast period. The Apalachicola River at Blountstown has crest and will continue to fall through the week. Points along the Suwanee River have also crest and will continue to fall. The Withlacoochee River at Valdosta has crest but will remain in minor flood for the next several days. The Withlacoochee River near Quitman is forecast to reach minor flood today before cresting Monday into Tuesday. The Ochlockonee River at Thomasville has fallen below flood stage yesterday morning, with that flood wave currently moving through Concord where a crest is forecast in minor flood sometime this afternoon. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 66 38 68 39 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 Panama City 65 45 68 46 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dothan 63 38 67 38 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 Albany 63 36 66 36 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 65 36 66 36 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 Cross City 66 38 68 40 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 65 45 65 47 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ this morning for Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ NEAR TERM...McD SHORT TERM...Dobbs LONG TERM...Dobbs AVIATION...McD MARINE...Dobbs FIRE WEATHER...McD HYDROLOGY...Merrifield