208 
FXUS65 KLKN 052201
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
201 PM PST Fri Mar 5 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Mild temperatures and mainly dry conditions will 
continue across the region for today. A weather disturbance will 
pass through the region Saturday bringing gusty winds and isolated
showers to NV. Sunday will see dry and above normal 
temperatures. Another Disturbance will arrive on Monday bringing 
colder air, showers, and additional gusty wind to the silver 
state.


&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday. 

Today will see fair and dry weather prevail across the silver
state. Temperatures will remain above normal with highs reaching
into the 60s.

There will be some shifting in the weather on Saturday as a 
weather disturbance passes through the region. This will bring 
mainly gusty winds to the silver state. This system will bring a 
small amount of moisture across the northwest portion of the 
silver state which could cause a few isolated showers. The showers
will not result in much precipitation. temperatures will drop 
5-10 degrees with the passage of this system which will still 
leave them in the 50s and above normal. 

This system will depart rapidly leaving Sunday as another dry and
fair weather days. Temperatures look to warm 5 degrees with highs
in the 50s and 60s staying above normal. 

Another weather system will arrive in NV on Monday bringing 
another round of showers, gusty winds, and lower temperatures.
The cold front associated with this system will start to move 
across NV from the NW late Monday morning. As it moves to the 
south and east it becomes better organized and will lead to 
greater shower activity. That being said during Monday morning and
afternoon the bulk of the moisture will have yet to arrive in NV 
so these showers will be on the lighter side. There will be a
transition with the showers as the warm conditions ahead of the 
front will cause most valleys to see rain to rain/snow mix. As 
colder air arrives during the afternoon the valleys will 
transition to pure snowfall. The winds are looking to be gusty 
both ahead and behind the passage of the cold front. Temperatures 
will start to fall on Monday with highs dropping by 5-10 degrees 
with most areas seeing highs in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...Monday night through next Friday.
 
Cold front continue to move southeast through Nevada at the start
of the long term period. Some models and ensembles indicate that 
the front could stall out some on Tuesday in central Nevada from 
White Pine County through northern Nye County. Upper low dropping 
south from off of the northern California coast could aid in 
funneling in a little more moisture at this time to enhance snow 
shower activity along the front on Tuesday. The mountains in White
Pine County would be the main benefactor, though valleys there 
could also see a little accumulation, especially in the early 
morning before daylight. 

Otherwise, the main synoptic feature in the long term is the slow
progression of the upper low as it tracks down southward off of 
the California coast. This will place Nevada in upper diffluence 
Tuesday night through Thursday at times. Shower activity from this
would mainly be focused in central Nevada and is not likely to be
very impactful here in our CWA. 

High temperatures are expected to be near seasonal in the 40's to
the lower 50's with lows mainly in the 20's, with some teens 
possible at times in colder valleys, especially in northern Nevada
which has better chances for some overnight clearing then central
Nevada does. No wind issues expected with the system with tighter
gradients well to the south and west.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected at all TAF sites through the
next 24 hours. Some breezy winds of generally 10 to 15 mph with 
gusts of 20 to 30 mph are expected this afternoon and winds will
be even a bit stronger on Saturday afternoon as a weak system 
moves across northern Nevada. KWMC, KBAM, and KEKO will see a 
brief period of mid level clouds on Saturday morning as the system
passes by, but otherwise just some high clouds are expected 
through the period. 

Note: Amendments will not be available for KELY given no wind
observations.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

99/90/90