463 FXUS62 KFFC 031129 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 629 AM EST Wed Mar 3 2021 ...12Z Aviation Discussion... .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 417 AM EST Wed Mar 3 2021/ SHORT TERM /Today through Thursday/... Satellite imagery shows the mid-level shortwave has nearly pushed through the forecast area and should continue doing so through the early morning. At the surface, the center of the low pressure system has made the jump across the FL peninsula from the Gulf over to the Atlantic, placing the forecast area in dry northerly flow. The rains will continue to push out of the forecast area over the next couple of hours before a dry pattern sets up for the next several days. Tranquil weather conditions will set up later this morning through the rest of the short term. Temps will be very near seasonal norms, in the 60s this afternoon and near 40 by each morning. Only kink in the forecast we'll need to watch for will be dewpoints/RH tomorrow afternoon. Dry air will be advecting into the forecast area near the 850hPa level and will likely mix down near the surface in the afternoon which NBM struggles to handle well, so went with a mix of statistical and high-res, convective resolving model guidance. Thiem LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Tuesday/... The long term starts out dry under northwest flow aloft. The next short wave will drop into the lower MS Valley and move east across the forecast area Friday night into Saturday. Models differ on the amount of moisture with this system with the ECMWF keeping most of the deeper moisture close to the Gulf Coast. At least a slight chance for showers across much of the area still looks reasonable. Have kept the mention of a rain/snow mix for the far northeast late Friday night into early Saturday. No accumulation expected. After that...northwest flow aloft again dominates the southeast states with associated dry weather. The ridge aloft drifts gradually to the east through the end of the period. 41 .AVIATION... 12Z Update... Rains have ended with mid-VFR cloud deck at northern sites and IFR at CSG/MCN that will clear through the rest of the morning with MVFR at CSG/MCN by 14-15Z and VFR by 16-17Z. Winds will be generally be N-NNW under 10 kts. //ATL Confidence...12Z Update... High on all elements. Thiem && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 62 40 70 38 / 30 0 0 0 Atlanta 60 42 67 40 / 10 0 0 0 Blairsville 57 36 61 33 / 10 0 0 0 Cartersville 61 37 67 36 / 5 0 0 0 Columbus 63 42 71 42 / 5 0 0 0 Gainesville 62 42 68 38 / 20 0 0 0 Macon 62 40 72 39 / 30 0 0 0 Rome 63 38 69 36 / 5 0 0 0 Peachtree City 61 40 68 39 / 10 0 0 0 Vidalia 60 42 69 43 / 60 0 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Thiem LONG TERM....41 AVIATION...Thiem