265 
FXUS65 KFGZ 021038
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
338 AM MST Tue Mar 2 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Warmer conditions and lighter winds are forecast on
Tuesday. A warm, moist Pacific storm will bring gusty winds, 
rain, and high elevation snow to northern Arizona Wednesday 
evening through Thursday. Fair weather returns Friday and
Saturday. More unsettled weather returns next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Tuesday will be very pleasant compared to our 
previous few cooler days with highs in the mid 50s to mid 70s. 
Skies will be mostly sunny with a few passing high clouds and 
lighter winds. A great day to get out and stretch your legs before
the next storm system arrives.  

On Wednesday, south winds will pick up ahead of an incoming 
closed low approaching the southern California coast. Mid level
moisture will begin to stream in allowing for increasing cloud
cover through the afternoon. Rain and snow showers will spread
northward by late Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday. Models
continue to shift the track of the low and precipitation amounts 
with the latest runs coming in a bit wetter. Higher confidence 
continues to be put in tailoring amounts to be in line with 
ensemble means that have had far less fluctuation. Generally, 
still expect the heaviest precipitation to be Thursday morning 
with snow amounts 1-3 inches possible in the high terrain above 
6500 ft. The system looks to exit the area by Thursday afternoon. 
Aside from some slick roads on Thursday morning, the impacts do 
not look to be widespread or long lasting.

A ridge of high pressure will build back in for the end of the
week with warming temperatures through Saturday Early next week,
another trough may impact the area with another round of gusty
winds. Beyond early next week, it appears the pattern stays fairly
active with the potential for longwave troughing over the
southwest. Stay tuned. 




&&

..AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Expect VFR conditions and light 
winds for the 24 hour TAF forecast period. Aviation discussion not 
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Expect fair and warm conditions today, with light 
winds. South through southwest winds increase on Wednesday, with 
increasing clouds and a chance of rain and snow showers developing 
late.

Thursday through Saturday....Areas of rain and mountain snow will 
decrease Thursday morning, gusty southwest winds becoming westerly 
and then northwesterly through the day. Colder temperatures Thursday 
will rebound once again Friday and Saturday. Light northerly winds 
Friday becoming gusty and from the southwest Saturday.


&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...ET
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff