841 
FXUS63 KFGF 261859
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1259 PM CST Fri Feb 26 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1254 PM CST Fri Feb 26 2021

1pm temps ranging from mid 40s in areas with no so cover, SE ND
and ND side of northern valley to mid and upper 30s where snow
pack remains. With west winds and mostly clear skies a very
pleasant afternoon and evening expected with lots of melting snow.

UPDATE Issued at 1005 AM CST Fri Feb 26 2021

Clearing line nearing the valley with southwesterly winds
developing which will aid in this afternoons warm up. The question
is how warm to go with mostly sunny skies and favorable wind
direction. Will hold steady with temps of mid 40s in the valley
and pushing 50 in SE ND and upper 30s for both the DVL basin and
the MN lakes and trees where a deeper snow pack is present. 

UPDATE Issued at 543 AM CST Fri Feb 26 2021

Clearing is spreading into western North Dakota, so some late
morning and afternoon sun is still on track. Winds have decreased
a bit across the Devils Lake region and northern Red River Valley,
but still remain gusty to the east of these areas. Should have
some steadier wind today, but not quite so gusty as it has been
overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Fri Feb 26 2021

Light snow late tonight into Saturday morning may bring a dusting
of accumulation to areas along/north of the Interstate 94 in North
Dakota and highway 10 corridor in Minnesota. However, being a
Saturday morning, the overall impacts would be much less than a
weekday morning.

As of early this Friday morning, wind speeds remain quite gusty.
Seeing gusts anywhere from 25 to 40 mph from the south-southwest.
This, along with cloud cover, is helping to keep temperatures
region wide in the low to mid 30s. 850mb winds currently range
from 40 to 50 knots, but these should shift just east of the FA by
12z Friday. The surface low is located over central Manitoba, and
it is expected to track pretty well straight east into western
Ontario today. So wind speeds should lighten up throughout the
day. A dry slot currently over eastern Montana should also work
eastward during the day, bringing a little more late morning or
afternoon sunshine to the area. A few sprinkles or flurries are
possible around the Lake of the Woods region this afternoon.

As the above mentioned surface low tracks into Ontario tonight
into Saturday morning, a cold front will drop slowly southward.
Not much forcing is associated with this feature, but there is
some weak low level frontogenesis. This should be enough to
squeeze out a dusting of snow. GEFS plumes show about 0.2 inches,
with WPC guidance showing the potential for possibly up to 1 inch
in a few spots. Usually with a cold frontal passage, north winds
get fairly gusty. However, not seeing much of a higher wind signal
with this frontal passage. With the dusting to an inch of new
snowfall, it is possible for some areas of drifting snow on
Saturday, but overall not expecting too much. Saturday also looks
colder.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Fri Feb 26 2021

For the Saturday night through Thursday time frame, look for nearly 
zonal flow to prevail through much of the period. The chance of 
impactful weather is minimal. Cooler air on Sunday will gradually 
moderate heading into Monday as the supply of cold air becomes cut 
off in response to nearly zonal flow across the Northern Plains. A 
trough pushes through by mid-week, with only a slight cooldown in 
it's wake.

Sunday and Monday will be the coolest days of the extended forecast 
with lows dropping into the single digits either side of zero. Highs 
each day will reach the 20s. H5 ridging brings much warmer 
temperatures well into upper 30s to low 40s on Tuesday, with split 
flow developing across the Central Plains. As a result, moisture 
will be cut off to the Central and Northern Plains. The ridge 
flattens rather quickly heading into mid-week, with continued dry 
conditions and warmer than average temperatures expected. A weak 
trough brings slightly cooler highs in the 30s to near 40 degrees 
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1134 AM CST Fri Feb 26 2021

VFR conditions this afternoon and evening will give way to
increasing clouds and light snow overnight with a cold frontal
passage turning winds from the west to the north. Light snow and 
low mvfr and possibly ifr CIGs will linger into Saturday morning
for most locations improving from west to east Saturday.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Lynch
AVIATION...JK