443 FXUS63 KIND 260716 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 216 AM EST Fri Feb 26 2021 .UPDATE... The SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM and SHORT TERM Sections have been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 216 AM EST Fri Feb 26 2021 High pressure in place over Indiana and Ohio will exit east today but will still provide dry weather for Central Indiana. A pair of upper level weather disturbances are expected to push through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys this weekend before a cold front pushes through the region on Sunday. This will bring chances for rain to Central Indiana tonight...again on Saturday night and again on Sunday Morning...along with mild temperatures. Dry weather is expected for the start of the next workweek...but rain chances look to return late in the workweek. Look for continued above normal temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /Today/... Issued at 216 AM EST Fri Feb 26 2021 Surface analysis early this morning shows high pressure in place over Indiana and Ohio. Low pressure was found across the western plains. Water Vapor showed mainly westerly flow in place aloft with an upper level weather disturbance in place over OK and TX...pushing eastward. Light easterly surface flow was in place across Indiana and GOES16 showed only some high cloud across the souther half of our state streaming within the flow aloft ahead of the approaching short wave. Quiet weather will be expected today as the models show the surface high drifting east slowly through the day...with southeast surface winds in place. Forecast soundings remain dry through the day as do Time heights as subsidence remains in place. Thus will trend toward a partly cloudy sky. Given the weak warm advection in place will continue to trend highs at or above the NBM. This should be a few degrees warmer than persistence. && .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/... Issued at 216 AM EST Fri Feb 26 2021 The upper pattern sets up with troughing in place over the American southwest this weekend and high pressure in place over Deep south and Gulf of Mexico. This results in a SW flow of warmer air arriving into the Ohio Valley through the weekend. Tonight...the GFS 295k Isentropic surface shows strong upglide in place across Indiana with specific humidities around 4 g/kg. Lift is stronger on lower surfaces. Forecast soundings and time heights show the arrival of low and middle moisture with these features. However the best forcing wit the passing shortwave aloft will have exited to the east. best Isentropic lift appears in place across the southern parts of the forecast area...thus will include the best pops at those locations...trending toward lower pops northward. With expected clouds and possible rain will trend highs at or above the NBM. On Saturday dry weather will be expected as warm air advection continues and Indiana will be caught between the two waves of forcing. Isentropic lift is lost on Saturday and dry air appears present within the mid levels. Time heights continue to show saturation within the lower levels. Forecast soundings show a bit more dry air. Thus will again trend toward partly cloudy skies and with expected sun and southerly winds...will trend highs at or above the NBM. Temps in the 60s on Saturday and Sunday appear possible in the forecast area. Another short wave looks to be push toward Indiana within the SW flow aloft on Saturday Night. Forecast soundings trend toward a saturated column as pwats surge to an impressive 1.00 inches. Again the isentropic surface shows good lift in place with favorable moisture as specific humidities are over 6 g/kg on the GFS 295K surface. Once again this system appears to be best focused across the southern parts of the forecast area. Thus will again trend highest pops at that location and trend pops lower northward. Again with cloud and rain expected within a warm air advection pattern will trend low at or above the NBM. On Sunday and Sunday Night a trough begins to push toward Indiana aloft from the upper midwest. This will push a cold front across Central Indiana on Sunday morning. Models suggest best moisture with this system will be ahead and along the front...thus will keep best pops contained on late Saturday night and Sunday morning on its approach. Forecast soundings show saturation during the morning...but quickly show signs of drying and subsidence by Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. Models suggest a strong surface ridge of high pressure building across Indiana at that time from the central Plains. Thus dry weather from Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. && .LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/... Issued at 255 PM EST Thu Feb 25 2021 A low pressure system will lift northeast across the upper Midwest, Great Lakes and into Quebec this weekend. However, deepest moisture and insentropic lift will result in the heavy rainfall being south of the Ohio River. Did keep allow for some higher PoPs and moderate QPF over our south central counties, however. Started PoPs Saturday night with best chances overnight. Staggered PoPs all the way from likely southeast of Bedford and Greensburg to little or no chance northwest of Frankfort and Crawfordsville. Rain will end from northwest to southeast late Sunday and Sunday night. Would not rule out a couple of snowflakes mixed in Sunday night as relatively colder air moves in behind the associated cold front. With such nice warm advection, raised temperatures a couple of degrees as did others after coordination. Look for well above normal temperatures this weekend with highs in the middle and upper 50s Saturday and middle 50s and lower 60s Sunday. More seasonable temperatures and dry weather are in store by early next week as high pressure moves across. Then, another system may bring precipitation to the area Tuesday. However, keeping PoPs low at this time as this system is currently off shore and models are having difficult time resolving this considering they are way apart regarding how far north or south this system will track. The same thing can be said about another system that could bring precipitation to the area by next Thursday. Confidence too low in timing and spacial aspects for anything more than low PoPs. Not seeing anything too far out of the normal regarding temperatures with highs in the 40s and 50s next week. && .AVIATION /Discussion for 260600Z TAF Issuance/... Issued at 1134 PM EST Thu Feb 25 2021 IMPACTS: Little to no impact anticipated through late Friday afternoon. Ceiling restrictions developing Friday evening with sub- IFR conditions settling in near or just after midnight Saturday. DISCUSSION: High pressure will shift east of the region overnight but maintain dry conditions across central Indiana. Mid and high level clouds currently across the region late this evening will shift southeast of the terminals overnight. Expect mainly clear skies into Friday afternoon as deeper moisture remains confined to areas south of the Ohio River. More substantial moisture will lift into the region Friday night with the potential for scattered light showers and increasing restrictions as low ceilings and patchy fog advect in. Light and variable winds tonight will transition to E/SE on Friday at around 10kts...then to southerly by the end of the forecast period. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Puma NEAR TERM...Puma SHORT TERM...Puma LONG TERM...MK AVIATION...Ryan