256 
FXUS64 KTSA 252025
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
225 PM CST Thu Feb 25 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Clouds increasing this afternoon ahead of short wave trough
currently located across CO/NM this afternoon. Relatively 
dry sub cloud layer will remain through most of the afternoon, 
but will moisten up this evening and overnight as forcing improves 
with the approaching wave.  Models consistent with keeping the main
QPF axis south of the red river.  While instability will be limited
will keep mention of thunder mainly south of I-40 tonight as 
lapse rates will steepen along with decent shear. One or two 
storms near the Red river will be capable of producing marginally 
severe hail along with locally heavy rainfall. After a mostly dry 
Friday, rain and low thunder chances return from south to north 
Saturday as southwesterly upper flow begins to strengthen. 
Chances will be maintained into Sunday as a surface front moves 
through. Large differences between the GFS and ECMWF develop by 
Tuesday with regards to the upper low that moves across the 
plains. While the ECMWF is more progressive, it depicts a 
stronger, negatively tilted feature moving across the region where
the GFS weakens the low to an open trough. At this time will side
towards the drier NBM solution for Tuesday. Low pops return by 
late Wednesday and continue into Thursday ahead of the next system
that will enter the plains by Friday. 


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   37  53  38  65 /  30  10   0  20 
FSM   38  54  40  64 /  80  20  10  60 
MLC   38  55  40  65 /  80  10  10  50 
BVO   32  52  35  64 /  20  10   0  10 
FYV   36  53  38  63 /  60  10  10  40 
BYV   35  52  38  63 /  50  10  10  30 
MKO   37  52  38  64 /  60  10  10  40 
MIO   33  51  37  65 /  20  10  10  10 
F10   37  54  38  65 /  60  10   0  40 
HHW   40  54  43  65 /  90  30  10  60 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


LONG TERM....23